It’s getting pretty tough for the few remaining live investors to believe the Fed’s rhetoric about the need for another rate hike — let alone the wisdom of the latest one.  Yesterday’s minutes did nothing to change that.

After a nice bounce (where it needed to bounce) the DXY is sliding back into negative territory this morning, taking the bloom off the yen carry trade and S&P futures both.SPX, which reached our IH&S target way back on June 1, still needs to backtest support after its latest suspect breakout.  Will today be the day?

continued for members…

Look for SPX to backtest at least the IH&S target (2420.46) yet again.

Because of the effect the YoY comparison would have on CPI, CL can’t help all that much at this time.  As we discussed last week, it got way ahead of itself trying to correct the Jun 29 dip.  Now, it must tread water for a while on its way to 49.82 in early August. EURUSD is still hinting at the .886 at 1.1470, and could easily reach it if allowed.  This is what happens when central bankers are afraid of ripping the band-aid off. USDJPY is treading water, not ready to break out but being propped up despite the dollar’s weakness.And, don’t look now, but VIX is back above the yellow channel bottom as well as the rising white channel.   It looks likely to test the SMA200 at 12.47.UPDATE:  9:42 AM

Here’s the 5-min chart, minutes after the open.  If the IH&S fails, which it appears to be doing, the red TL is the next real help. It lines up with the .500 Fib early next week.  Today, it’s around 2400, a nice round number and reasonable target.  But, it’s all about the timing.If neither holds, the H&S Pattern targets 2384.65, reasonably close to the SMA100 which we discussed last week as a very legit target.UPDATE:  11:45 AM

The moment of truth for SPX, which is backtesting the IH&S target.  VIX was rejected at the SMA200, which is giving bulls some hope for the old V-shaped recovery.  Anything below 2421 and I’d want to remain short for 2400.  Above 2421, look for a recovery.

Keep a close eye on EURUSD.  1.1470 is our target, and we should get a strong reversal there.  A reversal which includes a strong bounce by the USD should mean stocks rebound as well — and, that’s more important than where, exactly, SPX happens to be at the time.

We have a little household emergency here at our house — nothing major, but it requires my immediate attention and might take me away for a few hours.  I’ll return as quickly as possible, but it might not be until after the close.

GLTA.