With FOMC minutes due to be released this afternoon, the dollar should continue to dominate the markets.

USDJPY’s recent breakout is looking more and more like the real thing.

continued for members…

This should continue to support equities, which are clearly in need of a real backtest.…which will be further delayed if CL’s pause doesn’t get out of hand.  As we discussed all last week, it’s ahead of itself if our August target is correct.It’s also slightly high relative to July 2016’s averages. VIX suggests traders are nervous.Indeed, SPX has dropped through its short-terms SMAs and still appears vulnerable to a backtest of its SMA100 at 2384.68 — provided it can break below the red TL shown below.DXY continues to bounce off last week’s “must bounce” target.  But, it remains to be seen how the FOMC is going to support it going forward.  I suspect the inflation print will look dismal, meaning no one will believe in the likelihood of tightening.  The Fed minutes should be an exercise in creative writing.

I’m going to take a break and catch up on some other charts… will be back before 2pm.

UPDATE:  1:55 PM

Coming up on the minutes release.  Things are virtually the same as we left off several hours ago.  The only notable difference is that CL has sold off a little more, but is backtesting a channel line and its SMA20.UPDATE:  2:11 PM

The market is treating the minutes as a non-event, with small moves here and there.  I’d want to be short below 2430ish.Reading through the minutes now and don’t see anything unexpected just yet…

UPDATE:  3:47 PM

Not much of any value in the minutes except for a confirmation of our own expectations:  weak economic growth, low inflation, high asset values.  SPX has held its earlier gains, but is looking weak.  The H&S that completed last week has obviously been undone, and has evolved into a potential IH&S. The Fed’s outlook is fairly rosy, which accounts for the USD’s ability to hang in there.  But, I honestly don’t know how they’re going to convey optimism when inflation dips as I expect next month.