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Thank You Sir, May I Have Another?

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kevinUSDJPY’s triangle continues to punish stocks, alternating between bruising sell-offs and warm embraces.  Futures are off about 16 at the moment — but, are just getting started.

But, it’s NKD that continues to draw my focus.  It broke through the TL of support from previous lows and is closing in on our target from two weeks ago [see: Update on Nikkei, Sep 10, 2015.]

I don’t know whether the BoJ is one of the cloaked paddlers or one of the ones grabbing their ankles.  But, either way, NKD is the target of this particular hazing.  At some point, TJPTB (The Japanese Powers That Be) is bound to cry oji!

2015-09-24 NKD daily 0615continued for members…

USDJPY’s triangle (in yellow), aiming for 119.23 today…2015-09-24 USDJPY daily 0615…and CL breaking down, testing strong horizontal support — which would extend its own triangle…2015-09-24 CL 60 0615…while SPX’s downside targets remain in place.

2015-09-24 SPX daily 0615UPDATE:  9:32 AM

In a clever move, SPX nailed the initial downside target in the opening minute of trading.  We could get a bounce right here at 1925.6, as USDJPY and ES are suddenly reversing.  2015-09-24 SPX daily 0632But, USDJPY’s target is that .886, so we’ll hold on for now.

UPDATE:  9:43 AM

NKD, which should be our guide again today, is closing in on the purple .886 at 17156 as USDJPY closes in on the white .886/triangle bottom at 119.23.   Note that NKD targets also include the red 1.618 at 17064 and the white .618 at 17092.  In other words, the entire purple box.

If they really want to get nasty about it, they’ll target last December’s lows at 16654.  Wouldn’t that attract some attention?2015-09-24 NKD daily 06452015-09-24 USDJPY 5 0645Unclear where this will leave SPX, but it might make it to 1906.10.  It’s just that 1906 is further away for SPX than 119.23 is for USDJPY.  Maybe CL will get involved in pushing SPX lower.  It bounced off that horizontal support and is backtesting another one.2015-09-24 SPX 60 0645ES has pushed below its .618, and so might seek a backtest here on its way to 1892.63 — the .618 retracement of the bounce from Aug 24.2015-09-24 ES 5 0653UPDATE:  10:52 AM

USDJPY reached the .886, but no one else has quite reached their targets.  NKD low is 17205 vs 17156 initial target. Makes me wonder if USDJPY will momentarily push below the triangle bottom.2015-09-24 USDJPY 5 0748Maybe in combination with CL as discussed before… It has backtested the white .382 and might retest this morning’s lows.  2015-09-24 CL 60 0754Staying short for 1906, with 1899.71 as a good alternative if 1906 doesn’t hold.2015-09-24 SPX 5 0754UPDATE:  11:05 AM

NKD just reached 17160.  But, now other indices look like they’ll eventually go lower — so, either a bounce first or NKD will drop to one of those lower targets.

2015-09-24 ES 5 0805 2015-09-24 SPX 5 0805 2015-09-24 NKD 5 0805 2015-09-24 USDJPY 5 0805UPDATE:  12:32 PM

If it’s just a bounce, it should be about over. The .618 at 1925.60 would be ideal, but this would do.  Would short here, but just know that it could leak a little higher.

2015-09-24 SPX 5 0935

FWIW, SPX bottomed near 10 AM (PST) several days over the past week (the white arrows.)  When it peaked instead (yellow arrow) it sold off into the close.

NKD just hit overhead resistance. 2015-09-24 NKD 5 0929 And, USDJPY almost there. 2015-09-24 JPY 5 0929UPDATE: 1:52 PM

SPX just shot through the channel midline, meaning it’s likely heading for the .618 at 1925.60 or even the .236 at 1930.19.  If it’ll backtest the midline at 1917, I’d go long for the 1925 move.  From here, though, it’s only a few points.2015-09-24 SPX 5 1051USDJPY suggests 1925.60, ideally at 2:25 PM.2015-09-24 JPY 5 1051UPDATE:  2:03 PM

That’s a decent backtest.  I’d try a long position here at 1918.33 with a target of 1925.60 and possibly 1930.19.

2015-09-24 SPX 5 11021906.10 and 1899.71 remain our next downside targets, with 1899.71 a good candidate for a gap down in the morning — particularly if SPX doesn’t reverse at 1925.60.

UPDATE:  2:27 PM

I’d take profits here at 1926.59, only because USDJPY and ES seem to have run out of gas.

2015-09-24 SPX 5 1127If we’re early, 1930.19 is still quite viable.  Signal will be USDJPY breaking out and heading for 120.11 (of course.)

2015-09-24 USDJPY 5 1127 2015-09-24 ES 5 1127NKD is back to that heavy resistance.2015-09-24 NKD 5 1127UPDATE:  2:43

Stopped out and long again for 1930.19 or 1932ish late in the session.

2015-09-24 SPX 5 1142UPDATE:  2:49 PM

Shorting here at 1931.69.

2015-09-24 SPX 5 1148Only concern is NKD, which just jumped the 5-min SMA200 and seems intent on the .786 at 17597…2015-09-24 NKD 5 1157…and USDJPY which seems intent on 120.11.2015-09-24 USDJPY 5 1157 UPDATE:  3:38 PM

Bit of a quandary here as SPX is backtesting the purple channel again.  USDJPY and NKE were incredibly close to their targets, would have been quite easy for them to help it really break out.  Likewise VIX.  But, they have backed off several times.  2015-09-24 VIX 1 1210Makes me wonder whether SPX will close at the top of the channel (1929-1930) with the past hour written off as intraday excess.

2015-09-24 SPX 5 1241It’s either a pretty solid headfake or SPX is going to gap down in the morning.

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