pebblewriter

Tag: VIX

  • A Crucible Moment

    The Information reports that Sequoia Capital has issued a warning to its startup founders, detailing a series of moves that should be taken to avoid a “death spiral.”

    “Its latest warning to its portfolio companies takes the form of a 52-slide presentation, a copy of which was viewed by The Information. Sequoia described the current combination of turbulent financial markets, inflation and geopolitical conflict as a “crucible moment” of uncertainty and change. Sequoia told founders not to expect a speedy economic bounceback akin to what followed the start of the pandemic because, it warned, the monetary and fiscal policy tools that propelled that recovery “have been exhausted.””

    Sitting here in Silicon Valley today, where one bedroom shacks still fetch $1.5 million despite sliding tech stock prices, it’s not hard to imagine that the worst is yet to come.

    Futures are up modestly this morning, with our analog still on track.

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  • Economic Data Deluge Begins

    It’s a big week for economic data, with earnings and outlook announcements already setting a bearish tone.  First up this morning is April new home sales, which came in at 591k units – a 16.6% drop from March and a 32.9% plunge from April 2021. It barely beat the 2020 pandemic lows.

    As everyone now knows, this is a direct result of the sharp rise in mortgage rates which is a direct result of the sharp rise in inflation resulting from the Fed’s policy mistake: driving rates much too low for much too long as discussed last July [see: Time to Sell Your Home?]

    Over the past month, it has seemed that the old “bad news is good news” meme which played such an important role during ZIRP had been sidelined. Based on recent Fedspeak, however, it’s probably better characterized as being in cold storage. The Fed’s determination to reduce inflation will be sorely tested in the days ahead.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: May 23, 2022

    Futures are up sharply following Friday’s 140-point reversal which finally saw SPX/ES reach the -20% mark. As we discussed last week, the market should surprise many this week.

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  • Sure OPEX, But Then What?

    Futures are up about 1% this morning – par for the course for an options expiration Friday. The Chinese prime rate cut is no doubt helping.

    But, what happens next week as new and pending home sales, durable goods, FOMC minutes, GDP, PCE and Michigan Sentiment come rolling in? This will be a serious test of the market’s ability to hold its lows, let alone continue to bounce.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: May 18, 2022

    We’re seeing more backtesting this morning, consolidation after yesterday’s strong surge.

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  • Analog in Play

    Futures are all over the map this morning, with the overnight losses largely erased at one point.

    The key, though, is that SPX bounced back above a key Fib level after tagging its 20% target last week. Although it’s still early stages, our analog is in play.

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  • Analog Watch: May 13, 2022

    Friday the 13th – an inauspicious day to break a new analog!  With SPX nailing our downside target and futures breaking out of the falling wedge pattern yesterday, we’re off to the races.

    These things don’t always work out. But, when they do, it can be a career-making trading opportunity. The one which worked out absurdly well was back in 2011. The 22% correction played out almost exactly as forecast, with the vicious 11-day, 18% plunge starting on the very day and within 1 point of what the analog promised. You can read all about it HERE.

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  • The Big Picture: May 12, 2022

    SPX closed below important support yesterday, suggesting that the current leg down isn’t yet over. Indeed, things could get worse.continued for members… (more…)

  • Bitcoin’s Meltdown

    BTC reached our next downside target at 28,600 last night, then dropped as low as 25,401 before bouncing back to current levels.

    It’s not unusual for BTC to overshoot important support. And, this .618 Fib level is theoretically important support. But, it’s also important to remember that a bounce is sometimes just a backtest of newly formed resistance before another leg down.

    We’ve been bearish on BTC since 66,432 in October 2021. We were a little early, but maintained our posture ever since with with the exception of the Dec 2021 and Jan 2022 bounces – a stance which has produced exceptional gains.

    We’ll take a fresh look at BTC and whether it’s worth trying to catch this falling knife.

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  • A Swing and a Miss

    ES spent 11 hours hanging around our next downside target yesterday.  While the session had many characteristics of capitulation, the fact that SPX didn’t quite reach significant support (3956) suggests that the overnight ramp is a head fake.continued for members… (more…)