VIX: Decision Time

VIX’s constant slide has been one of the best indicators of the runaway bullishness over the past 10 months. Over the past week, however, it has soared to new highs, reaching our 200-day moving average target well ahead of schedule. What does it portend for equities? continued for members… … continue reading →

Blowout Retail Sales Nudge Rates Higher

We’ve stuck stubbornly to our forecast for the 10Y to reach 4.75 for nearly a year, betting that sticky inflation would force the Fed’s hand. We came within 6 bps of new highs this morning after retail sales soared 0.7% (expected 0.4%) in July. Futures held on to their lows, though the pre-opening shenanigans haven’t … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Aug 8, 2023

Futures are down sharply as yesterday’s currency moves and VIX smackdown are being unwound by Moody’s banking downgrades.  At least banks aren’t waking up to a 40% windfall profit tax such as Italy just imposed. This timely bit of truthiness certainly has the potential to get ES to our SMA50 target in the lead up … continue reading →

Update on Currencies: Aug 4, 2023

Futures are up moderately on USD weakness.  The EURUSD has backtested its recently broken red TL and its SMA10, sending the DXY back below a TL it was threatening to break above.  This supports our thesis that the SMA200 is the most important target, but that the tag might wait until it reaches 1.087 or … continue reading →