pebblewriter

Tag: stocks

  • Pretty Soon, You’re Talking Real Money

    Apparently, investors aren’t quite as sanguine about inflation as it seemed. After slightly overshooting our upside target from February, SPX plunged 4.32% – about $1.5 trillion in market cap. Trillion-and-a-half here, trillion-and-a-half there, pretty soon you’re talking real money.  It was the worst day in the markets since March 2020 and one of the worst on record.

    Yet, the talking heads and financial press were all rainbows and unicorns leading up to the CPI print.  The big question, of course, is “what happens next?”

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  • Inflation Rises

    August CPI came in hot, rising 0.1% in August instead of the consensus 0.1% decline. Core was even worse: 0.6% versus 0.3% consensus. The annual print also disappointed, coming in at 8.3% versus expectations of 8.0% or less.Having slightly overshot our 4153 target overnight, ES is now reversing sharply.continued for  members… (more…)

  • Charts I’m Watching: Sep 12, 2022

    Futures are up modestly on light volume algo action in advance of tomorrow’s CPI data.

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  • The ECB Chooses Stagflation

    Futures are off moderately in the wake of the ECB’s decision to impose a 75 bps rate hike – its highest ever – on an economy already reeling from spiraling inflation and weakening economic activity.

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  • Backtest Complete

    Breakouts from well-established falling channels are usually followed by backtests of that channel. This is how bulls put all that nasty bearishness behind them, freeing stocks for another leg up. Except, it doesn’t always turn out that way.  Sure, ES nailed our backtest target. But will it follow through with a respectable bounce?

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  • Powell Lays it on the Line

    Markets finally got the message. Or, maybe Powell finally put it plainly enough: there will be more pain before the Fed eases.

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  • Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech

    Powell threw cold water on the market’s optimistic outlook this morning, suggesting that aggressive tightening will continue.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Aug 24, 2022

    Futures are flat after enjoying a modest overnight ramp.

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  • More Where That Came From

    Yesterday marked the second day in a row of sharp declines in the equity markets following the 200-day moving average backtest and the passing of OPEX.There’s more where that came from.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Aug 22, 2022

    Futures are off sharply this morning, reflecting the lack of support behind the runup to the last two options expirations.

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