COVID-19: What to Expect

Updates are in reverse order, meaning the latest update is just below. UPDATE:  January 18, 2021 It has been almost a year since our first post on the coronavirus [see: More Where That Came From.]  We tried to stay away from politics. But, it was often very difficult – such as when this Feb 25 … continue reading →

Yield Curve Model: “Correction Imminent”

Our yield curve model is again sounding the alarm on overpriced equities. Unless the 10Y – which closed its June 8 gap this morning – declines sharply right away, the 2s10s spread signals a sharp equity downturn to finish the correction which began on Oct 12.The bad news for equities? A sharp drop in the … continue reading →

Retail Sales’ Last Hurrah?

September retail sales sharply beat estimates, coming in at +1.9% versus 0.8% expected. With enhanced unemployment and virtually all other stimulus having dried up, however, this could be retail’s last hurrah. But, it’s enough to boost stock prices on this OPEX Friday 2 1/2 weeks before a presidential election. continued for members… … continue reading →

Update on NKD: May 29, 2013

While the Nikkei hasn’t officially been on our hit list, it’s certainly been fascinating to watch.  Today, it earned its very own page on pebblewriter.com. Late last night (early this morning?) I updated the USDJPY [HERE] which was at a critical point in its own rally to the moon.  It recently broke down through the … continue reading →