pebblewriter

Tag: interest rates

  • Charts I’m Watching: Mar 15, 2024

    Futures are flat this OPEX morning as algos weigh the impact of higher than expected inflation, driven largely by rising oil and gas prices.continued for members… (more…)

  • PPI Comes in Hot, Too

    February PPI came in at twice expectations: 0.6% versus 0.3%.  In a replay of the CPI print, stocks dipped for a few seconds before resuming their overnight ramp as algos were more focused on VIX dropping through its 50-DMA just in time for OPEX.

    VIX did pop above the 50-DMA…for several seconds. It got better.Indicators such as RSI still remain on edge.continued for members… (more…)

  • On the Brink, Again

    The last time VIX cratered to below its 50-day moving average in two days, ES popped over 3%. Then, as now, SPX had committed the egregious sin of dipping below its 10-day moving average as it approached important Fibonacci resistance. The difference, now, is that SPX is on the brink of a breakout above that resistance.

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  • CPI Hotter Than Expected

    February headline CPI came in at 0.4% versus 0.3% expected (and January.) Core CPI registered a 0.4% rise versus .03% forecast and 0.4% prior. YoY, headline was up 3.15%, up from 3.09% in January and a slight beat of the 3.1% expected, while core rose 3.8%, down from 3.9% in January.

    Shelter and gas price increases were responsible for 60% of the rise in February.

    This is in keeping with our Gas v CPI model which shows a slight uptick in MoM pricing in the midst of a YoY decline.

    The short-volatility algos were busy this morning, with VIX diving more than 5% in minutes to back below the 200-DMA.

    Futures, which might have been expected to tumble on the expectation of further delays to FOMC rate cuts, rallied instead. continued for members… (more…)

  • Charts I’m Watching: Mar 8, 2024

    Blink, and you might have missed the selloff this morning when nonfarm payrolls came in much higher than expected but the January print was revised sharply lower.Fortunately, the algos were on it, immediately crashing VIX to a point where a 15-pt decline in ES turned into a 15-pt gain.

    This should put SPX at its 1.272 Fib extension, a potentially important level of overhead resistance ahead of next week’s CPI and PPI prints.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • Is the Meltup Over?

    We’ve waited a very long time for SPX’s 50-DMA to reach a great spot for a small pullback. It’s finally here.

    Will the market cooperate?

    NOTE: I will be out of the office between March 4-6, returning on March 7.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • PCE in Line

    January headline PCE registered a 0.3% increase MoM (0.4% Core) which was in line with most estimates. YoY, headline PCE rose 2.4% versus 2.6% in December, while core PCE rose 2.8%, down from 2.9% in December.

    In other economic data, personal income rose to 1.0% MoM from 0.3% in December and personal spending rose at a 0.2% rate versus 0.7% in December.

    Algos cheered the data, with futures swinging from a moderate loss to a moderate gain in seconds.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Feb 27, 2024

    Durable goods ex transportation fell by 0.3% in January, slightly more than expected. Futures rose slightly on the print, but are essentially flat ahead of the important consumer confidence reading.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Feb 26, 2024

    Futures are flat ahead of the open as traders place their bets on Thursday’s PCE print.

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  • Back on Track

    Stocks rode NVDA’s coattails back into their rising channels yesterday, right back to the top of already overstretched chart patterns.

    continued for members… (more…)