PCE increased 0.2% MoM and 2.6% YoY in December, in line with most estimates. Core PCE increased 2.9% YoY. This is the smallest gain since Mar 2021. Drilling down, goods rose 1.1% (durable goods 1.5%) in December while services rose 0.3%. Real PCE rose 3.2% YoY, with the goods category growing 5% and durable goods … continue reading →
Tag Archives: interest rates
Q4 advanced GDP came in at 3.3% annualized versus 2.0% estimates and full year 2023’s 2.5%. The PCE price index and durable goods orders came in as expected, though durable goods ex-transportation came in sharply higher than estimates. The numbers… Futures had already bounced at the rising white channel midline, but extended their gains after … continue reading →
In last month’s update on gold and silver [see: Dec 5 Update] we noted that gold and silver had reached our mid-October targets. We forecast that silver would likely drop to its 200-day moving average and continue dropping to backtest two significant trend lines at 22. It reached 22.04 on Monday before and has bounced … continue reading →
Another day, another meltup drifting lower into the open. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures rose to fresh highs overnight on algo action. Currencies, commodities and VIX all remain in position to aid this rally – as long as the bevy of earnings due out this week complies. continued for members… … continue reading →
Keep an eye on home sales, due out at 10am ET. Shelter has been one of the more problematic categories of inflation for the Fed, showing a 6.2% annual increase in December. Without a doubt, it remains the biggest impediment to getting inflation back down to 2%. Like yesterday, the overnight ramp has faded as … continue reading →
Futures pared their overnight gains after beats in initial claims, housing starts, and building permits. So far, it has been enough to backtest the little H&S neckline that was topped overnight. continued for members… … continue reading →
To quote the great Yogi Berra, “it’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” But, there are a number of important themes that should drive markets in 2024. The elephants in the forecasting room are the so-called Magnificent Seven (AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT, AMZN, META, TSLA and NVDA) which soared 105% in 2023 versus the … continue reading →
These annual reviews are always interesting. This past year of charting, like most, saw some enormous successes as well as some lessons in humility. More importantly, though, the markets’ behaviour in 2023 offers vital insight into the year ahead. Equities As we noted back on Jan 10, 2023 in A Look Ahead at 2023, the … continue reading →
PCE came in below expectations. Headline was -0.1% MoM and 2.6% YoY. Core was +0.1% and 3.2% YoY. This was the smallest rise since April 21, and offers the Fed additional room to consider cuts in 2024 should the trend continue.Futures added to modest gains after the print. The key issue remains: whether the moderating … continue reading →