pebblewriter

Tag: DXY

  • Charts I’m Watching: Oct 23, 2023

    Futures have dropped through our 200-day moving average target – a significant move that opens the door to a more important backtest.

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  • Powell Speaks

    Futures have bounced back from overnight lows in advance of Jay Powell’s comments at 12pm ET at the Economic Club of NY.

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  • Mideast Worries Mount

    Escalating carnage in the Middle East points to a protracted and increasingly complex set of circumstances for markets, with oil prices and currencies confused as to how to respond. Futures are off moderately this morning, supporting our notion that a 200-DMA tag is still in the cards.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Oct 17, 2023

    Futures are off moderately, backtesting the recently broken channel after much stronger than expected retail sales.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Oct 16, 2023

    Futures are up moderately, running into their own channel top following VIX’s recent retreat from resistance,

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Oct 13, 2023

    Futures are up modestly following establishment of a new rising channel.

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  • PPI Hotter Than Expected

    September PPI came in at 0.5% versus 0.3% expectations, briefly driving down futures prices…until VIX was hammered back down. Its 200-day moving average continues to be the critical threshold for algos.

    It remains to be seen whether tomorrow’s CPI print can also be ignored.

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  • The Other Shoe

    Futures are testing the upper bounds of the channel from Sep 14. Judging from VIX, currencies and the commodities we watch, ES won’t break out just yet – thus allowing SPX to fully backtest its 200-day moving average.

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  • Oh, So Close

    Futures came within 7 points of our 200-day moving average target overnight, begging the question: was that close enough for a legitimate backtest?  SPX itself is still 15 points away, close enough by Aug-Oct 2019 standards but nowhere near the overshoot experienced this past March.

    The more important question is whether the factors driving stocks lower haven’t yet finished? As we discussed yesterday, the bearish fundamental case has been building momentum lately. What if investors started to care?

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  • Update on USDJPY: Sep 29, 2023

    We’ve been accurately forecasting USDJPY for over 12 years, starting with recognition of a falling wedge that yielded a huge breakout in 2011 [see: USDJPY – How Low Can it Go?] and evolving to an understanding of the importance of the Yen Carry Trade.

    The Japanese economy is a hot mess, but the chart patterns have been fairly easy to discern. When there’s any doubt, remember two principles:

    (1) The BoJ will do whatever it takes to keep stocks on the rise.
    (2) Ignore any other principles.

    So, when a channel breakout occurred in March 2021 [see: USDJPY’s Turn] in the wake of the 35% Covid crash, we were right on top of it. Likewise, we could see the ginormous Inverted Head & Shoulder Pattern coming from a mile away.   USDJPY zipped up through the “resistance” and has tagged every target we’ve set for it. It has further to go, though the path should continue to confound everyone but chartists.continued for members… (more…)