pebblewriter

Tag: Dollar

  • Charts I’m Watching: Oct 30, 2023

    Futures are up moderately after bouncing at the 1.618 Fib last week.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Oct 24, 2023

    Futures are up moderately on positive earnings reports from several key equities.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Sep 6, 2023

    Futures have slipped about 10 points on quiet trading.

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  • Blowout Retail Sales Nudge Rates Higher

    We’ve stuck stubbornly to our forecast for the 10Y to reach 4.75 for nearly a year, betting that sticky inflation would force the Fed’s hand. We came within 6 bps of new highs this morning after retail sales soared 0.7% (expected 0.4%) in July.

    Futures held on to their lows, though the pre-opening shenanigans haven’t yet begun (keep a close eye on DXY and VIX.) We don’t expect the bulls to give up SPX’s 50-day (4443.43) without a fight.

    The challenge for bears now, as back in October 2022 when the 10Y tagged our 4.26 target [see: More OPEX Games] is that we’re up against OPEX (Friday.)  Back then, it meant the 10Y’s channel collapsed and the next leg higher was postponed until after equities’ year-end run for the barn. If TPTB have their way, SPX’s 50-day backtest would be a springboard for a nice bounce.

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  • Charts I’m Watching Aug 14, 2023

    Futures are loitering around the 50-day SMA, leaving SPX’s tag still up in the air.

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  • CPI Coming Up

    Futures are up moderately, primarily on the DXY stall and the usual overnight VIX smackdown. But, most attention will be focused on Thursday’s CPI print.

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  • Update on Currencies: Aug 4, 2023

    Futures are up moderately on USD weakness.  The EURUSD has backtested its recently broken red TL and its SMA10, sending the DXY back below a TL it was threatening to break above.  This supports our thesis that the SMA200 is the most important target, but that the tag might wait until it reaches 1.087 or so.

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  • Fitch Downgrades US

    Fitch downgraded US debt from AAA to AA+, adding to stocks’ overnight decline.

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  • Forcing Their Hand

    The recent breakout in oil/gas prices has now inspired a breakout in the 10Y.

    It’s an important headwind for the Fed, which had relied on falling energy prices to keep inflation and interest rates at an acceptable level.

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  • Mixed Messages

    Futures bounced off our 50-day MA target and are up sharply on NVDA‘s blowout earnings/forecast, egged on by Speaker McCarthy’s latest promise that a debt ceiling resolution is on the way.

    Of course, this bullishness is unwarranted from a Fed rate hike perspective. Initial claims came in below expectations and Q2 GDP (the deflator was 4.2% vs 4.0 expected) was hotter than expected. Not exactly a scenario that supports a pause/drop.

    Unless VIX plunges below 18.58, this ramp job should be faded.

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