pebblewriter

Tag: COMP

  • Charts I’m Watching: Jul 17, 2023

    Futures are off slightly on low volume on a slow news day.

    Some significant Fibonacci levels have been reached, however, setting up potential large moves in equities.

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  • Stagflation Data

    With CPI due out tomorrow, we should see confirmation of how behind the curve the FOMC continues to be. Whether or not the data comes in above estimates, it will still be well above the Fed’s professed target of 2% – meaning the pause was yet another mistake served up in the interest of propping up equity markets.

    Just a reminder: with CPI around 4% and GDP below 2%, we’ve got stagflation. And, the Fed has no answer for that.

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  • All Eyes on Inflation Data

    Futures are off modestly after the usual overnight VIX slump. Markets are focused on this week’s economic data, with CPI coming out Wednesday and PPI and initial claims on Thursday. continued for members… (more…)

  • Charts I’m Watching: Jul 7, 2023

    ES nailed our initial downside target yesterday and is currently off about 10 points this morning following weaker than expected nonfarm payrolls.

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  • Minute by Minute

    The Fed will release its June minutes this afternoon, potentially shedding some light on why they paused their rate hikes. But, thanks to plenty of Fedspeak – including Jay Powell’s testimony – we already know that they are as confused and conflicted as everyone else. As always, they are more concerned about markets than anything else.

    Futures are off about 0.50% as we approach the open.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Jun 9, 2023

    The prop job continues, with VIX reaching a lower low and the DXY still under pressure.

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  • Jawboning an OPEX Rally

    Yesterday’s 1.2% spurt higher was driven not only by the usual push in USDJPY and plunge in VIX, but a healthy dose of hopium regarding the debt ceiling crisis. Congressional and White House reps were nearly unanimous in declaring that a deal is as good as done.

    Whether they’re speaking the truth or simply trying to avoid a market meltdown a la 2011 remains to be seen. Both SPX and ES saw a bullish 10/20 cross, but it could unwind if ES closes back below the former resistance at 4166. Keep on eye on the ever proficuous VIX, which usually triggers algos to buy any significant dips by breaking below support such as the purple channel bottom below.

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  • Aftermath

    Futures are off modestly after a more hawkish Q&A with Powell than many expected. ES came within a few points of the 50-day yesterday. Based on the overnight action, it should reach our next downside target with ease.

    It didn’t help that unit labor costs shot up 6.3% for April versus the 3.3% prior and 3.6% consensus. Perhaps the three rate cuts the market has been pricing in by year end don’t constitute such a great forecast.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Apr 19, 2023

    Futures are off moderately on light volume…

    … and, surprise!, a rebound in VX futures, but not VIX itself. Oh yeah, Friday is OPEX.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Apr 17, 2023

    VIX came within .01 of its previous lows on Friday……leaving plenty of doubt as to the algos’ next move. Today, we should see some resolution as moving averages start to roll over.

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