Charts I’m Watching: Aug 3, 2022

The VIX nonsense continues, ramping futures back above the SMA100 with the help of Jim Bullard, Fed president and occasional CNBC host, who insists there is no recession – just like he insisted inflation wouldn’t be a problem. Whether there is or not, the market will never reflect one as long as this kind of … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Jul 28, 2022

Another Fed meeting, another VIX-driven algo meltup. But, something’s more than a little sketchy about this one – aside from the fact that the recession which Powell refused to acknowledge yesterday just got closer to being official. It might be shallow, but the 0.9% drop in Q2 (first estimate, vs +0.5% consensus) makes for two … continue reading →

FOMC Day: Jul 27, 2022

Futures have ramped almost 1% overnight – a common occurrence lately, especially in advance of a Fed decision. Even the durable goods orders beat (a miss if you’re looking for the Fed to slow their rate hikes) did nothing to thwart the algo-driven meltup. continued for members… … continue reading →

Holding the Line

Can VIX be contained for another few days? If you want to know what’s going to happen in the market this week, that’s the critical question. As weak earnings reports and economic data have dribbled out over the past week, VIX has tested its 200-day moving average almost every day. Every time it comes close, … continue reading →

Fast and Furious

Between an FOMC meeting, consumer confidence, GDP, durable goods, PCE, consumer sentiment, new home sales and a slew of important earnings calls, this week promises to be one of the most important so far in 2022. Somewhere in all that data we should learn whether the economy is really in a recession (spoiler alert: it … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Jul 22, 2022

It’s another one of those mornings where ES is taking its cues from a timely VIX smackdown, erasing a modest overnight loss and promising to add to yesterday’s rally. But, today is actually different, with the 10Y gapping lower as stocks creep higher. It could be a delayed reaction to yesterday’s sharp selloff in oil … continue reading →

Fixing Gas Prices

Gasoline futures (RBOB) have reached our 200-day moving average target set on March 3 [see: The Devil You Know] after having broken out of a falling flag pattern.  Then… …nothing would be as effective at punishing Russia and helping to solve the inflation problem as crashing the oil market…If oil does retreat, stocks should too. … continue reading →

Waiting in the Wings

This morning feels a whole lot like yesterday morning, with futures ramping higher on the latest smackdown in VIX. Of course, these maneuvers can be an effort to force a breakout in stocks. But, they can also be an effort to put a little more air under stocks in advance of a downturn.  With plenty … continue reading →