Update on USDJPY: Mar 14, 2022

USDJPY reached our 118 target overnight. We charted this target over a year ago [see: USDJPY’s Turn] following USDJPY’s breakout from the falling purple channel [see: The Usual Suspects], reasoning that the Bank of Japan would ramp up the yen carry trade in order to support the Nikkei’s breakout. The BoJ rarely disappoints, and they … continue reading →

The Ukraine Crisis Worsens

Russian troops entered Eastern Ukraine following its formal recognition of the two separatist regions, marking an escalation in the seriousness of the Ukraine crisis.  Futures fell over 94 points from Friday’s close before the algos kicked in and are now down less than 10 as we approach the open. continued for members… … continue reading →

Bullard Speaks

In a CNBC interview this morning, Fed President Jim Bullard said “Our credibility is on the line here…”  Anyone paying any attention to the Fed knows that that ship sailed a long time ago. Futures have been all over the map, down as many as 55 points before VIX was hammered following a false news … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Feb 11, 2022

This is all it took to get FOMC members to walk back Bullard’s hawkish comments. Note the tiny channel breakdown. Terrifying enough to keep QE going and to respond to the worst inflation in 40 years with a mere 25 bps rate hike a month from now? Apparently.How else can you explain this insanity? If … continue reading →

CPI Reaches New 40-Yr High

January headline CPI reached 7.5%, a new 40-yr high, sending the 10Y up over 2% for the first time since August 2019 when CPI registered 1.75%. As has been the trend since November, oil/gas no longer leads the way. Inflation has become widespread, higher than the Fed’s so-called 2% target in every category except, ironically, … continue reading →

COMP’s Moment of Truth

COMP’s breakdown caught a lot of people by surprise (though thankfully, not everybody.) Likewise, its bounce has turned more than a few heads.  As it approaches a backtest of its channel line and SMA200, what can we expect? And what does it mean for the broader market? continued for members… … continue reading →