pebblewriter

Tag: bonds

  • Charts I’m Watching: Aug 21, 2023

    Futures are up modestly in advance of the Jackson Hole symposium. continued for members… (more…)

  • VIX: Decision Time

    VIX’s constant slide has been one of the best indicators of the runaway bullishness over the past 10 months. Over the past week, however, it has soared to new highs, reaching our 200-day moving average target well ahead of schedule. What does it portend for equities?

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Aug 17, 2023

    Futures are up modestly on stronger growth data and an approaching OPEX.

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  • Blowout Retail Sales Nudge Rates Higher

    We’ve stuck stubbornly to our forecast for the 10Y to reach 4.75 for nearly a year, betting that sticky inflation would force the Fed’s hand. We came within 6 bps of new highs this morning after retail sales soared 0.7% (expected 0.4%) in July.

    Futures held on to their lows, though the pre-opening shenanigans haven’t yet begun (keep a close eye on DXY and VIX.) We don’t expect the bulls to give up SPX’s 50-day (4443.43) without a fight.

    The challenge for bears now, as back in October 2022 when the 10Y tagged our 4.26 target [see: More OPEX Games] is that we’re up against OPEX (Friday.)  Back then, it meant the 10Y’s channel collapsed and the next leg higher was postponed until after equities’ year-end run for the barn. If TPTB have their way, SPX’s 50-day backtest would be a springboard for a nice bounce.

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  • Charts I’m Watching Aug 14, 2023

    Futures are loitering around the 50-day SMA, leaving SPX’s tag still up in the air.

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  • CPI Coming Up

    Futures are up moderately, primarily on the DXY stall and the usual overnight VIX smackdown. But, most attention will be focused on Thursday’s CPI print.

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  • AAPL & AMZN on Deck

    Yesterday’s stronger than expected ADP data and the Fitch downgrade did a number on stocks, with several indicators officially turning bearish for the first time in months. But, AAPL and AMZN, which make up over 10% of the S&P 500, haven’t reported yet. So, it might be a little early for bears to get excited.

    We charted AMZN last week [see: Amazon – Can It Keep Delivering?] noting that it had reached important resistance and was overdue for a reversal. It tested important support at its 50-day moving average yesterday which, if broken, could easily usher in another 10%+ to the downside.

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  • Fitch Downgrades US

    Fitch downgraded US debt from AAA to AA+, adding to stocks’ overnight decline.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Aug 1, 2023

    With the July meltup finally behind us, futures are off moderately.

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  • BoJ: Just Kidding

    It’s a big week for the market as many of the most important stocks are reporting amidst ongoing questions about the strength of the economy.

    This morning, however, it’s all about the BoJ again. After effectively raising interest rates, they’ve jumped into the market to make sure interest rates don’t actually rise – boosting the USDJPY and, as a result, equity futures.

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