Another day, another China trade deal rally. Futures are up about 21 points but the ramp job really started shortly after 7pm last night and peaked on “news” of a supposedly more conciliatory attitude on the part of the Chinese.

Wasn’t it Trump who wasn’t previously open to a “partial deal?”

continued for members…

The ramp was originally driven by pops in USDJPY, CL and RB despite a big build in API (4.1MM build versus last week’s 5.9MM draw) inventory for crude last night. 

A reminder, the more important EIA data is due out this morning.  And, it’s quite common for CL and RB to rally in advance of this data release.

USDJPY is threatening a breakout yet again.

And, NKD is following along.

ES is backtesting its flag bottom again — the one it fell through yesterday.While VIX is considering whether to hold the red TL connecting its recent bottoms.This does little to change the possible scenarios discussed yesterday.

I’ll check back in after the EIA report.

UPDATE:  10:30 AM

EIA crude came in at a 2.9MM build vs API’s 4.1MM.   Stocks are initially unchanged as VIX is slumping lower.

I have to duck out for a meeting, should be back around 1pm or so.

GLTA.

UPDATE:  4:10 PM

Your basic algo-driven meltup until a Reuters headline dropped at 3:43 which suggested the Chinese aren’t all that optimistic about the talks.  ES dropped 12 points, bounced 7, then dropped another 9.  Coincidentally (not) it bottomed out on a TL from the earlier lows.

SPX almost tested a TL connecting the lows other than the one they’re pretending didn’t happen yesterday.

The daily chart with days numbered… NKD managed to increase its already ridiculous angle of attack……based on USDJPY doing the same. CL and RB fell to TL support on the headline. And, VIX, which was steadily strangled all day, finally popped back above the horizontal TL on the news.  But, it’s backing off after the closing bell.