pebblewriter

Posts

  • FOMC Day: Jul 26, 2023

    Equities have ramped almost 12% since the last Fed meeting – ignoring the prospect of higher interest rates for a longer period of time. Given the oil market’s recent breakout and the obvious base effect on inflation, we see a good chance of Powell presenting a more hawkish stance than the overbought market is prepared for…

    …raising the prospect of spike in the 10Y to 4.76% by mid-August. One of the few developments that could prevent it: a collapse in oil/gas prices.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • Forcing Their Hand

    The recent breakout in oil/gas prices has now inspired a breakout in the 10Y.

    It’s an important headwind for the Fed, which had relied on falling energy prices to keep inflation and interest rates at an acceptable level.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • Inflation Not Done

    We might be done with inflation, but judging by the oil/gas markets, it’s not done with us. Both CL and RB have now broken out of channels dating back to early 2022 – with CL pushing above its 200-day moving average this morning.

    The Fed has its work cut out for it this week – and for the next several months.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Jul 21, 2023

    Just saw that the great Tony Bennett passed early this morning. It was always a thrill to see him perform. He was one of the last great ones, and will be missed.

     * * * * *

    Futures are leaking higher on this OPEX Friday following SPX’s bounce off its .786 Fib.

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  • OPEX Eve

    Futures are sagging after powering through another key Fibonacci level. At this point, the only question is whether or not we see a backtest.

    With OPEX coming up tomorrow, it’s unclear whether we could get a full backtest of the .786 at 4534.63.

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  • The Meltup Continues

    Bulls powered through a key Fibonacci level yesterday, suggesting another 2.5% in upside and putting the bearish case at risk.

    While the move was aided by the usual algo factors – another breakdown for VIX – it toppled near-term resistance all the same.continued for members… (more…)

  • Update on Currencies: Jul 18, 2023

    EURUSD tagged our 1.1273 target overnight. It came a little earlier than expected, but it’s a significant development given the pair’s correlation with stocks.continued for members… (more…)

  • Charts I’m Watching: Jul 17, 2023

    Futures are off slightly on low volume on a slow news day.

    Some significant Fibonacci levels have been reached, however, setting up potential large moves in equities.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Jul 14, 2023

    Futures are up modestly after reaching the .786 Fib retracement and 1.272 extension yesterday. SPX is lagging slightly.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • Inflation, or Recession?

    PPI was expected to come in at 0.4%.  Is the 0.1% print a sign of waning inflation, or could it be confirmation of the coming recession?

    continued for members… (more…)