pebblewriter

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  • Update on Bonds: Mar 07, 2013

    If rates really are heading back up in the near future, we’d expect to see bonds take a hit (and stocks, too, but that’s a different post.)  Back on Jan 21, we focused on the 10-year treasury (ZN.)

    We observed that ZN had just completed a large Crab Pattern and broken down from a rising wedge, and appeared to be due for a “significant retreat.”

    The chart below shows a big Crab (grey), followed by another Crab (red), a Bat (white) and another Crab (purple.)  Each previous Crab Pattern completion has been followed by a significant retreat, so we might suspect one here with the purple pattern completion.

    Since then, both the purple and white channel lines have broken down, suggesting more downside ahead. The intersection of the white channel bottom and purple channel midline is coming up in early April, and prices have fallen from 132’160 on Jan 21.  But, where’s the “significant retreat?”

    Shifting focus to the 20-year as represented by TLT (just for grins), the charts show continued weakness over the next couple of months — provided TLT can push through some important support.

    The harmonic picture is negative enough – given the potential Gartley or Bat Pattern in play. But, the white and red channels have both recently surrendered a support line.  Backtests are complete, and the next support is down around the .786 at 114.5 — though I suspect the .886 at 112.26 will get the nod.

    Note that it intersects with the falling white channel midline, the falling red channel bottom and the large white rising channel midline — all around late May-June.

    A slight overshoot would tag the .500 at 110.18 on a larger harmonic grid (purple) and establish a Point B for a pattern that might lead prices back down below the white midline.

    The fly in the ointment?  Check out the dashed red trend line cutting across the middle of the chart. It has influenced a few turns, and is just below current prices at around 115.60.

    Stay tuned…

  • Interest Rates: Breaking Out?

    With the usual caveat that I’m not a bond guy (seriously, what’s the point?) I took a fresh look at interest rates on the 10-year note.

    The obvious downtrend over the past 15 years is well-captured by the purple channel below.  It has been marked, however, by a series of rising white channels, some of which I have charted.

    When rates fell below the channel bottom last May, it might have ushered in a new, steeper decline suggested by the falling red channel.

    However, since bottoming in July, TNX regained the purple channel bottom, backtested it, and has put in a series of higher highs and higher lows that precisely echoes the slope of the previous channels.

    Its latest feat is pushing up through and backtesting both the red channel .75 line and the purple channel .25 line.  In the process, it has climbed back above the white channel midline and faces the psychologically important 2% mark yet again (the red, dashed TL.)

    From a harmonic standpoint, TNX looks well-positioned to test 2.28% in the next month.  Note that the July lows completed a Butterfly Pattern at the 1.272 on the purple grid and a Crab Pattern on the 1.618 on the white grid.

    Note the precise turn at the .500 Fib level, hinting at a Bat Pattern completion at the .886 of 22.83.  The .886 intersects with the purple channel line late next week — though the precise placement of such a long-term channel is always subject to some interpretation.

    To get there, however, TNX will have to push back through 20, the .618 Fib line at 20.14, and the top of the red channel – currently around 21.34.

    The RSI picture is promising.  The weekly chart shows the positive trend, regardless of whether you subscribe to the pessimistic (yellow channel) or optimistic (purple channel) view.

    A close-up of the above chart shows steadily improving relative strength since April 2011 and an important reversal at the midline.  The intersection of the white and yellow channel tops looms out there around April 3.

    The daily RSI, in addition to showing a steadfast refusal to become overbought, shows the recent break above the yellow channel’s 25% line.  Provided RSI can push through the dashed red trend line (corresponding with the .618 and 2% price levels discussed above), there is plenty of room to run.

    The intersection of the yellow midline and the purple channel top is around March 20.

    Like many markets, TNX is at a critical juncture.  It’s put up or shut up time.  A push through 2% would likely usher in 2.28% in short order, followed by a backtest of the red channel and subsequent push higher.

    If we expand the white channel (yellow, above) we get a glimpse of what the upside case looks like.  A turn at the red .886 would intersect with the .382 Fib of a harmonic grid drawn from the Feb 2011 highs.  The .618 of that pattern — not all that distant from the red 1.618 — would intersect with the midline of the yellow channel at 28.46 around the middle of August.

    A return to the top of the purple channel, currently around 3.4%, could come as early as July, but a more moderate case would be between Oct 2013 and Jan 2014.

    GLTA.

  • RUT: End of the Line?

    RUT has reached the upper bound of a well-defined channel that dates back to 1998.

    It could leak slightly higher in reaching for the top of the large rising wedge and some key Fib levels, but I suspect RUT has reached a turning point.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • Charts I’m Watching: Mar 6, 2013

    SPX reached our 1543.43 target yesterday, exceeding it by 4 cents before reversing to close below 1540.  This was a 1.272 extension of the decline from 1530.94 to 1485.01 that began on Feb 20.

    But, 1.272 completions result from Butterfly Patterns.  And, Butterfly Patterns require a key reversal (Point B) at the .786 Fib level.  The move up from 1485 barely reacted at the .786 Fib level, but saw a significant reversal at the .886 Fib.  So, harmonics suggest a move to the 1.618 extension for a Crab Pattern (though not always so, see the 1:30 update below.)

    updated: 1:00PM EST

    The futures are all pointing skyward this morning, with the eminis indicating a willingness to ignore several key Fib levels – albeit on negative divergence – and the dollar and euro at key inflection points.

     

    Keep an eye on the EURUSD 15-min chart, which shows the precarious position of the pair.

    Good time to review stops…stay nimble today.

    UPDATE:  10:05 AM

    The EURUSD just broke down from the little channel we were watching earlier and is back below 1.30 again.

    The next significant Fib support is 1.2875-1.2885, but the .786 or .886 on the 15-min chart above should be watched.  If one produces a reversal, the pair could try to redefine its falling channel from the current steeply sloped white channel below to a kinder, gentler version such as the purple.

    Any break out of the white channel should be viewed as such a move and would likely result in a retest of the light blue channel midline currently at 1.3167.

    Stocks spurted higher this morning on a better than expected ADP employment report which, for all the hoopla, shows a month over month decline.

    Offsetting the “good news” is slightly more credible word from the Census Department that durable goods fell off a cliff last month.  Total new orders for all manufactured goods were reported down 2% in January.  The real, non-seasonally adjusted decline, however, was 6.96%.

    New orders for manufactured durable goods were reported down a whopping 4.9%, which is bad enough.  Remove the varnish of seasonal adjustment, and the real decline was from $239 billion to $204 billion, a 14.4% plunge.

    The optimists will say this decline was due to worries over the sequester.  And, there’s probably some truth to that.  They also say we should ignore transportation and defense spending — an argument which has never made the slightest bit of sense to me.  It’s also an argument you will never hear when transportation and defense orders surge as they did last month.

    According to the Aerospace Industries Association, that industry alone accounts for about 633,000 jobs (about 6% of all mfg jobs) and $224 billion in revenues (17.9% of all durable  goods revenues) including $95 billion in exports — 6.2% of all durable goods exports and one of the few success stories in America’s perennially crummy balance of trade picture.

    A decline in orders, such as might be expected when, say, the US is trying to reign in spending in the midst of winding down a couple of wars, could put a real dent in those figures.  And, these are relatively high-paying jobs with benefits, not part-time Wal-Mart greeters.

    Defense spending accounts for about 2/3 of all government spending (federal, state and local) which, in turn, accounts for nearly 20% of total GDP.

    Please don’t get me wrong.  I’m not arguing that defense spending should be increased, or even maintained.  Other than increasing the shamefully paltry benefits provided to wounded veterans, I’d love to see the budget slashed dramatically.  It doesn’t take a lobbyist to see we probably spend a bit more on defense than is necessary.

    But, when someone suggests we should ignore transportation and defense spending when assessing the country’s economic future, it’s because those components are in decline.  Excluding them makes the economy look stronger, just like excluding the long-term unemployed makes employment statistics look stronger.

    It’s all about perception.

    UPDATE:  12:40 PM

    SPX is off its high (1545.25) for the day and trending lower.  It’s early still, and it’s likely to be expanded, but the operative channel is probably something like this:

    Note that SPX is flirting with the white channel midline, while the yellow TL off the 7/23/11 and 9/14/12 highs is still well below at about 1532 — near the 1.618 of the latest spurt higher.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • Break on Through

    MEMBERSHIP NOTE:

    I have added a Q&A section to the page discussing the fund in the works and will continue to expand it to include additional questions submitted by members. Those members who are accredited investors may learn more by clicking here.

    Also, I received many emails regarding the category of annual membership some of you have (charter or not.)  Because (1) it will take time to go back and check, and (2) I’d like to be able to offer an ETA on the proposed fund, I’m postponing the fee increase — probably through the end of the week.

    For those who haven’t checked in lately…

    The current annual membership price of $950 is going up to $2,500 shortly [why?]  For those monthly, quarterly and semi-annual members planning to renew in the coming months, it pays to grab a charter annual membership now, regardless of whether you’re interested in the fund and regardless of whether the fund comes to fruition.

    If you’re a regular annual member, it might also make sense to upgrade to a charter annual membership.  Even if your current membership doesn’t expire for months, the new rate will be higher.  Because it’s impossible for me to know exactly when the fund might be up and running, your membership could expire before you’re able to take advantage of the perks for annual members.

    And, if you upgrade to a charter membership, you wouldn’t have to worry about future fee increases if, say, the fund launch is delayed or you decide not to participate.  And, as mentioned above, you’d be eligible for a rebate of your fees anyway if you end up subscribing to the fund.  So, your downside is pretty limited.

    As always, any new membership will simply be tacked on to the end of your existing monthly, quarterly, semi-annual or annual membership.

    If you’re already a charter annual member, do nothing.  You’re golden.  Your annual pebblewriter.com rate is locked in for the life of the site and you’re already eligible for all the perks for the proposed fund.  The only thing left to do is forward membership information to every investor in your address book.

    *   *   *   *   *   *   *   *

    ORIGINAL POST:

    In the words of that prescient market technician from the 60’s…

    You know the day destroys the night
    Night divides the day
    Tried to run,
    Tried to hide
    Break on through to the other side
    Break on through to the other side
    Break on through to the other side, yeah…

    *   *   *   *   *   *   *   *

    We started yesterday’s session wondering whether the reversal at the red .786 would lead to a downturn or was Point B in a Butterfly Pattern. From the initial post:

    As we discussed last week, the reversal at the red .786 could be the full extent of a corrective wave on the way lower (the B wave in an A-B-C)  that is meant to test the bottom of the white or purple channels.  But, it could also be the Point B in a Butterfly Pattern targeting 1531 or 1540.

    We spent the day harvesting several 7-pt moves, waiting for some kind of breakout or breakdown. With a few minutes to go before the close, the markets approached the neckline of the Inverted Head & Shoulders Pattern we’ve been watching for the past week (dashed yellow line below.)

    The technical picture was mixed, but we went with the IH&S and went full long at 1525 as was our plan [After the Funding’s Gone – 1:45PM update.]    Thirteen points later and from this side of 1530, it was obviously the right move.  But, it wasn’t quite so obvious at the time.

    Now that we’ve broken on through to the other side, the question is “what’s next?”

    continued for members… (more…)

  • A New Analog: EURUSD

    As noted back on Feb 21, the EURUSD has broken down from its rising channel (white) and accelerated to the downside, breaking the Jan 4 1.2996 low and the psychologically important 1.30 level.

    The intersection of the purple .618 and two white channels at 1.38 will have to wait (till my next visit across the Pond, no doubt.)

    Losing the rising white channel hurts momentum quite a bit, but it’s the drop back through the 75% line on the falling white channel that represents the bigger problem for the pair.

    This channel dates all the way back to Dec 06. Reaching the top for the third time is still possible, of course, but it’s that much harder now that the pair needs to retake the higher channel line and mount a fresh attack.  Suppose it doesn’t?

    I’ve redrawn the falling white channel as red and will lower its top (for now) to reflect that possibility.  I’ve also sketched in a more relaxed rising channel (light blue) that reflects potential channel support at current prices (the intersection of the falling red .75 and the rising light blue .25.)

    I don’t know whether the pair needs to retest the falling white midline or not.  The bottom of the new light blue channel intersects with the red .75 in mid-March.  Also there is the .25 of the very large rising purple channel, which provided a huge bounce in Jun 2010.  It’s easier to see in the LT chart below.

    Here’s the really big picture.

    Several months ago, I noticed that the entire chart looks a bit like an expanded replay of the little dip way over to the left.  Playing with channels, I got some interesting results.

    The huge rising white channel seems to matter quite a bit. Note the support it offered from Aug 93 – Jan 97.  When it broke, the pair fell precipitously to the midline, shedding .15 in about six months.

    The midline offered support again through Feb 99, then completely fell out of bed (equities maxed out in Mar and Aug 2000.)

    EURUSD spent 18 months in the penalty box confirming the channel bottom until finally breaking out early in 2002.  It nearly reached the midline again two years later, and spent almost 4 additional years grinding higher – reaching 1.60 at a little over the 1.618  before zigzagging lower to its present level.

    We’ll circle back to these charts Tuesday and take a look at the analog’s implications for the US dollar and equities.

    To be continued…

     

  • Charts I’m Watching: Mar 1, 2013

    Getting a nice sell-off following the completion of the Bat Pattern we were tracking yesterday.  Shown below on the eminis…

    The downside path is clear.  But, bulls will probably go for the obvious IH&S with what should be a decent bounce somewhere around 1495-1500.

    The dollar reached our 82.136-82.281 target from several days ago, and the EURUSD has lost another important level of support: 1.30.

    More in a few…

    UPDATE:  09:40 AM

    SPX opening down sharply…Note that it turned yesterday at 1525.34, only 36 cents from one of the two targets we identified just before it opened at 1515.99.

    The market didn’t fall out of bed overnight, so I’ll take a long position on the open this morning in anticipation of tagging the .786/.886 combo at 1521.11/1521.19 or the .886 at 1525.70.

    I remain full short from 1525.34 (the 2:20 update for members) but will play any bounces as mentioned above.

    The key level today is 1496 – the bottom of the purple channel.  If this is broken, lots more downside where that came from — especially if the previous low at 1485 is taken out.

    UPDATE:  10:00 AM

    Nice post on Zerohedge earlier: You Rarely Know You’re in a Recession Until it’s Too Late.

    Referring to an ECRI report, ZH makes the following points:

    1) Think back to 2008, a couple of days before the Lehman failure. Looking at the data in hand, you would see GDP growth at about 1% in Q1 and 3% in Q2. More specifically, Q2 GDP growth had just been revised up on August 28 from 1.9% to 3.3%, sparking a 212-point Dow rally that day. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/29/business/29econ.html?_r=0

    2) In March 2001, 95% of economists thought there would not be a recession, but one had already begun.

    3) No economist predicted the 1990-91 recession beforehand.

    4) Hardly any economists recognized the severe 1973-75 recession until almost a year after it started. Indeed, that recession began with the ISM at 68.1, and payroll jobs growth did not turn negative for eight months.

    5) In 1970, unaware that the economy was nine months into recession, none other than Paul Samuelson said that the NBER had worked itself out of a job, meaning that improved policy expertise had made recessions very unlikely.

    6) In three of the last 15 recessions – specifically, in 1980, 1945, and 1926-27 during the Roaring Twenties – stock prices remained in a cyclical upturn.

    ECRI has caught a lot of crap for their recession call last Fall.  I know the feeling, as most economists I know (yes, I travel in exciting circles) think the worst is over.  I wish I shared their optimism.

    I mention this because of the positive ISM Mfg Report released this morning.  It’s being cited as proof of expanding activity.  Remember, the PMI is a survey of purchasing managers’ opinions about their business.

    They read the same newspapers and websites, watch the same TV, and are subject to the same MSM brainwashing as the rest of us.  A better than expected snapshot in time of their opinions does not mean the economy is just fine.

    UPDATE:  10:35 AM

    We got a bounce off 1501 — pretty close to the 1495-1500 range where we expected it.

    Any push back into green territory would be cause for an intraday long with tight stops, but not for giving up shorts.

    We just hit the .500 Fib of this morning’s decline, and the .618 is at 1516.63.  The top of the white channel is up ahead at 1518.50.  Any of these would take the index positive on the day.

    Would that mean the correction is over?

    continued for members... (more…)

  • Charts I’m Watching: Feb 28, 2013

    Yesterday was a great example of the beauty of Harmonics.  In conjunction with my RSI work and channel work, we were able to rack up 23 points on a day when the big picture is still fairly negative (remember Italy, the sequester, negative GDP, retailers’ horrid guidance?)

    By drawing important Fibonacci lines in the sand, we made the market prove to us it had more upside by crossing those lines. As we’ve discussed many times before, Harmonic Patterns don’t, by themselves, always tell you what the market is going to do in a particular time frame.

    But, they do an excellent job of “if-then” forecasting, such as “if the market reverses at Point A, we can be very confident of reaching Point B.”  Again, combining this information with other fairly reliable patterns, we can capture most of the points most of the time

    The market didn’t fall out of bed overnight, so I’ll take a long position on the open this morning in anticipation of tagging the .786/.886 combo at 1521.11/1521.19 or the .886 at 1525.70.

    Fresh charts in a few…

    UPDATE:  9:45 AM

    The channel placement is still somewhat speculative.  But, again, in a volatile situation like this, the market will show us whether it has more potential or not.

    We are nearing the .786 retracement of the move down from 1530, and the .886 of the move down from 1525.  They’re on top of one another, lending added validity.  So, all else being equal, we can expect a reversal here — especially given the 60-min RSI chart.

    Note we’re taking a 2nd crack at breaking out of the yellow channel at 61 — the range in which most moves fail.  Stay tuned.

    UPDATE:  9:50 AM

    Just tagged our target level, so I’m booking the 5 points from this morning here at 1521.29.

    A strong move back up through 1521 opens up 1526.  The immediate downside target is around 1510 a combination of Fib levels and the next lower purple channel line (the 25%.)  If that doesn’t hold, the bottom of the purple channel is currently down at around 1494.

    BTW, I’ve had a number of questions about the new fund in the works and the changes it might bring for this website.  I think the past few days are an excellent example of why a fund makes a lot of sense.  Yesterday, I was in and out of the market (on these pages) six times for a total of 23 points:

    1. Bought at 1497
    2. sold at 1507 (+10)
    3. bought at 1507
    4. sold at 1514 (+7)
    5. bought at 1514
    6. sold at 1520 (+6)

    Twenty-three points on 1497 is a little over 1.5% — a decent day, especially given that it occurred on a bounce in the midst of a downturn, which are generally tricky.  Twenty or thirty of those in a year would be a great year for most investment advisors.

    Given that it takes a few minutes to identify a situation, a few more to chart it, a few more to make the chart readable for members, and more still to post it online and compose a cogent comment or two, it’s challenging to get that information out to readers fast enough so that you can capture every single point that I do.

    Then there’s the issue of how to trade the information.  I just shorted SPX at 1521 with the expectation of an initial 10-point drop.  Suppose it pops up to 1525 60-seconds later?  Were you stopped out?  Do you hold on?   Wait, now it just dropped 20 points!  You refresh the screen…where’s the update!?

    While you’re anxiously refreshing the webpage, I’m looking at RSI channels (in multiple time frames), various chart patterns, checking the dollar/euro/bonds/VIX, looking for any news just out, etc.  I make a determination and either trade on it or sit pat.

    I then start the process of updating the chart and posting it online with supporting comments.  Best case…3-5 minutes.  Worst case, all hell is breaking loose and it takes 10-15 minutes or more.

    This is why I like the idea of a fund.  For better or worse, it’s the quickest, most efficient way to transfer value from my noggin into your net worth.  Investors can go on with their business meeting/golf game/ski run and leave all the sweating it out to me.

    BTW, I know a fund isn’t for everyone. For the rest of us, the website will continue to provide the exact same kind of information it always has.  But, it will evolve, ideally becoming more efficient with streamlined delivery accompanying the charts for the pebblewriter.com veterans and investment professionals who want to go it alone.

    For example, those who have been around for a while would completely understand a comment like “hit .786/.886 combo at 1521, Gartley/Bat or Butterfly Point B?  Charts later.”   That way, I could cut down on the time it takes to convey the essence of the post.  I’m also looking into ways to post the information on a chat-like platform, which might also eliminate email and log-in problems.

    The trick with investment advisor clients is finding a way to deliver timely information at a reasonable price without giving away the secret sauce to potential competitors.  It will mean substantially higher fees for future subscribers ($2,500 on Mar 4), but won’t affect current members who have taken advantage of the current membership offer.

    Have you locked in your subscription price yet? CLICK HERE

    More shortly…

    UPDATE:  12:50 PM

    SPX won’t go down without a fight.  It has retraced almost .886 of its declines from 1521.37, meaning it’s about to reverse at 1520.65 and head lower (a Bat Pattern) or is destined for the 1.618 at 1525.29 — also the .886 retracement of the 1530-1485 decline (1525.70) and the level of the last high on the 25th.

    As noted earlier, a push through 1521 opens up 1526.  SPX has till about 1:30 EST to decide: push up through 1521 or a channel breakdown.

    Note the close proximity of the white channel line, which will always, always offer support… until it doesn’t.

    The RSI picture is mixed at present, so we’ll stay focused on harmonics and channels.  Looking at other indicators, the dollar is hanging in there in its own rising channel.

    It recovered its midline just before equities opened this morning, and broke out of its a channel on its 15-min RSI.  It tagged 82, but hasn’t yet been able to break above — much less reach its short-term target of 82.136-82.281.

    UPDATE:  1:20 PM

    There’s our answer, a breakout above the .786/.886 Fib at 1521.11.

    Playing the long side again, with initial target of 1525.70, trailing stops starting at 1521.

    Charts in a few…

    UPDATE:  2:05 PM

    Getting pretty close, now.  This should also be a tag on the large purple channel midline and the proposed yellow channel top.

    UPDATE:  2:20 PM

    Let’s review the implications to our forecast of tagging 1525.70.  We started into this yesterday, but got interrupted by a pretty wild intra-day ride.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • The Big Picture: Feb 27, 2013

    ORIGINAL POST:  6:00 AM

    SPX ended yesterday just below our 1497 trigger point at the neckline.  I know the bulls would love to blow through this level and negate the H&S, but I think they’ve really got their work cut out for them, especially given the political mess in Italy and the looming US sequester.

    Bernanke isn’t likely to say anything new today.  And, judging from AAPL’s price action, the market isn’t looking to Cupertino for salvation.  The durable goods data?  Ho hum…  Saying it was a good number if you ignore defense and aircraft is like saying a shark attack was fine except for those pointy things in their mouths.

    Defense is due to get a lot worse starting next Monday.

    I’d put slightly greater odds on a breakdown of the purple channel.  As for targets, I’ve mentioned the 1474.51 level a lot – the Sep 2012 high and roughly where the SMA 50 was at the EOD (hat tip to Mike for the question.)

    I still think this area has potential, as a retracement to the .886 of the 1576-666 decline would set up a move to 1576 itself.  Why?  Think of stair-steps, where each major Fib tag or break is followed by a back test to a significant lower Fibonacci level.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • The Future of Pebblewriter

    Some of you have heard about the new Fund I’ve been contemplating for some time [more info HERE.]  While I’m excited about its prospects, I want to reassure members that  pebblewriter.com will still be here, putting out the same kind of market analysis for which it’s become known.  Sometime in the next few months, you may notice…

    The site will be more streamlined, focusing on existing members, fund subscribers and financial professionals who don’t require quite as much hand-holding.  Those of you who have been around very long don’t need another explanation of Gartley Patterns every time I chart one.  If you’re new, don’t worry; we’ll get you up to speed first.

    I might implement a premium chat-room format for active day traders.  I’m looking into ways to share trading information on a semi-live basis for both fund members and blog members without cannibalizing the fund.  Still much to be worked out here…

    The website (and customized services) are moving to a more sustainable business model that won’t compete with the fund.  That’s a fancy way of saying the cost of an annual subscription will increase to $2,500 on March 4 (except for charter members, whose rates are fixed.)

    This increase will cover the cost of hiring administrative support for the website (sign-ups, log-in issues, etc.) that will be necessary once the fund is up and running as well as some long overdue enhancements in technology and communications.

    I understand $2,500 represents a steep increase for some, but it is comparable to the annual fee charged to someone making a $100,000 investment in the fund, or a $150,000 investment in the average equity mutual fund.  And, I dare say, we’ve had better success than just about any mutual fund out there.

    Nevertheless – and,  in order to reduce the sting – I am extending the following offer:

    All members as of March 4 will have the opportunity to become a charter annual member — meaning your annual membership fee will be locked for the life of the site.

    If you are a current monthly, quarterly, semi-annual or non-charter annual member, simply purchase a new annual membership ($950) by March 4 and I will add one year to your existing expiration date.  All future renewals will be at the same rate for the life of the site.

    If you are just now joining (or recently joined) pebblewriter.com,  you may also join as a charter annual member at the current price of $950 before prices increase to $2,500 in a few days.

    SIGN ME UP!

    I value each and every member, regardless of your interest in the fund or portfolio size.  You made this journey possible!  I’m excited about this next step, and will continue to do my best to earn the faith you’ve shown by being a part of pebblewriter.com.