The Future of Pebblewriter

Some of you have heard about the new Fund I’ve been contemplating for some time [more info HERE.]  While I’m excited about its prospects, I want to reassure members that will still be here, putting out the same kind of market analysis for which it’s become known.  Sometime in the next few months, you may notice…

The site will be more streamlined, focusing on existing members, fund subscribers and financial professionals who don’t require quite as much hand-holding.  Those of you who have been around very long don’t need another explanation of Gartley Patterns every time I chart one.  If you’re new, don’t worry; we’ll get you up to speed first.

I might implement a premium chat-room format for active day traders.  I’m looking into ways to share trading information on a semi-live basis for both fund members and blog members without cannibalizing the fund.  Still much to be worked out here…

The website (and customized services) are moving to a more sustainable business model that won’t compete with the fund.  That’s a fancy way of saying the cost of an annual subscription will increase to $2,500 on March 4 (except for charter members, whose rates are fixed.)

This increase will cover the cost of hiring administrative support for the website (sign-ups, log-in issues, etc.) that will be necessary once the fund is up and running as well as some long overdue enhancements in technology and communications.

I understand $2,500 represents a steep increase for some, but it is comparable to the annual fee charged to someone making a $100,000 investment in the fund, or a $150,000 investment in the average equity mutual fund.  And, I dare say, we’ve had better success than just about any mutual fund out there.

Nevertheless – and,  in order to reduce the sting – I am extending the following offer:

All members as of March 4 will have the opportunity to become a charter annual member — meaning your annual membership fee will be locked for the life of the site.

If you are a current monthly, quarterly, semi-annual or non-charter annual member, simply purchase a new annual membership ($950) by March 4 and I will add one year to your existing expiration date.  All future renewals will be at the same rate for the life of the site.

If you are just now joining (or recently joined),  you may also join as a charter annual member at the current price of $950 before prices increase to $2,500 in a few days.


I value each and every member, regardless of your interest in the fund or portfolio size.  You made this journey possible!  I’m excited about this next step, and will continue to do my best to earn the faith you’ve shown by being a part of


The Future of Pebblewriter — 4 Comments

    • Guess I didn’t explain that very well.  It’s about finding the right balance between value and cost for different types of members, and it’s shaping up as a catch-22.

      As some of my investment advisor clients have pointed out, the information I provide for $950 per year (soon to be $2,500) is dirt cheap from their standpoint.  If they hired someone halfway decent to do what I do, it would easily cost 100X that.

      If I fed the fund’s actual trades in real-time to every investment advisor or stock broker (about 40% of the membership, at least those I know about) who currently uses the site, they would have very little incentive to subscribe to the fund — a fund I would very much like to be successful.

      Furthermore, I would essentially be enabling potential competitor with an extra $2,500 to mirror what the fund was doing, making it less unique (and diminishing its value) at the same time.  No sane hedge fund manager would do that (I aspire to sanity.)

      Raising the price to $2,500 at least brings in about the same revenue as a minimal $100,000 investment in the fund (the base fee, at least) so it begins to level things out.  But it doesn’t solve the problem of giving away the store.

      I could raise the price even more, say, $25-50,000 each, but that would be completely unmanageable for most smaller investors, to whom I am very devoted and for whom a $100,000 investment in a fund isn’t possible.

      There are other potential solutions, such as a two-tiered fee schedule, requiring a minimal investment in the fund to access real-time trade data, delaying trade data for institutional members, etc.  Or, I could just stick to the way things are, providing good charts and forecasts reasonably quickly to all members — probably the simplest solution.

      I don’t want to have to police the membership, trying to determine whether a subscriber is a $100 million mutual fund or a retired electrician managing his $50K IRA.  I have enough administrative headaches as it is.

      Log-ins average 20-30X the number of paying members on the average day.  Since the average member obviously doesn’t log in that many times per day, I have some serious leakage going on.

      The other thing I won’t do is reduce the quantity or quality of the info I provide to the individual investors who made this blog possible in the first place.  I want to keep the site affordable, hence the decision to grandfather current pricing for the next few days.

      Otherwise, I’m looking for suggestions.  Anyone?  You can comment here or PM me through the contact tab: