Going long again at 1327 is paying off nicely [see: Shakeout or Fakeout], with SPX currently trading at 1353. We had a nice reaction off the Fib .382 at 1326.19 and have obviously broken out of the little red channel that was guiding the downside. … continue reading →
ORIGINAL POST: 9:00 AM There comes a time in the construction of every channel when the market either obeys a presumed channel boundary, morphs it into something else or breaks it entirely. We’ve had a very well-behaved channel off the 1266 bottom on June 4. I’ve had to make small adjustments to the channel on … continue reading →
Sorry about the GoDaddy issues this morning. Guess I need to add changing web hosting services to my to-do list this weekend. To make matters worse, the guy helping me get the site up again kept wasting time trying to sell me on a longer-term contract. As if! SPX is clinging to its channel — … continue reading →
ORIGINAL POST: 10:00 AM I’m reminded of the guy who fell off the roof of a 20-story building. With each window he passed, people inside heard him call out “so far, so good.” We’re still in this crazy channel/rising wedge to who-knows-where, and, well…so far, so good. Just hope it doesn’t end with a dull … continue reading →
Many thanks to everyone who’s been a part of the new pebblewriter.com. We just completed our first full calendar quarter. 2Q2012 came in at 37.74% — which would have ranked us #1 among managers if we were an equity mutual fund or (at least, according to one website) a hedge fund. Now, if we can … continue reading →
VIX tagged 18.32 this morning which, as Brett and ewtnewbie point out, is the Fib .786. of the current (red) grid below. This makes a nice turning point, but also because: it represents a tag of the upper bound on VIX’s daily RSI channel it tags the falling wedge upper bound it tags both a … continue reading →
A quick recap of the euro issues currently at play, for anyone who’s been living under a rock the past week. From last week’s The Fork in the Road: I suspect the biggest deciding factor will be the upcoming summit of European Finance Ministers on July 9-10. There are several issues at play. The recent … continue reading →
The euro is again hanging by a thread. Recall it already broke down from and is back-testing a big channel (solid red, below) that dates back to 1997. Its weekly RSI, however, looks like it could have some life left in it. First, I should make clear that I think the euro zone is toast. … continue reading →
ORIGINAL POST: 9:15 AM The ugly NFP has been called “not ugly enough” to bring on more QE immediately. Let’s look at how the current 10-pt ES loss might shake out on the opening. continued… … continue reading →
RUT is again nearing its previous highs of 856 (July ’07) and 868 (May 2011.) It’s already exceeded the .886 of each of those, and is rapidly approaching the .886 retracement of its most recent dip from 848 to 730 (March 27 – June 4, 2012). As charted back on June 15 [see: Forecasts, Darts … continue reading →