President Trump says he wants the country “opened up and just raring to go by Easter” — about 2 1/2 weeks from now. Some business leaders and titans of finance are publicly agreeing.
Hopefully, this is nothing more than the latest ploy to goose the markets higher. The alternative is that he really plans on doing it, which would subject the country to scores of additional, needless deaths.
And, it’s not only the elderly or those with serious underlying conditions. Read this account of a 26-year old currently in the hospital or this one by a woman taking care of her critically ill 56-year old previously healthy husband. Think of the people you know who are immuno-compromised due to heart disease, lupus, cancer or diabetes. Imagine being pregnant, facing the prospect of delivering in a hospital already swamped by COVID-19 patients.
We have seen so many government missteps over the past several months. But, this would be one of the worst. Even leaving parts of the country not under lockdown has been a colossal mistake, as those with the means simply leave the locked-down hot zones and head for those areas less affected.
We saw this in Italy, when the northern part of the country was shuttered. Within a matter of days, many people made their way to Southern Italy, Switzerland, France, etc. The same thing has happened and will continue to happen in the US. Locking down New York was smart, but many had already headed to states not locked down – seeding spikes in cases in those states as well.
The number of cases in the US is increasing sharply. But, since test kits are still widely unavailable, that number continues to be meaningless. Look, instead at deaths – which increased 41% between Mar 23 and Mar 24 and have averaged a 30.2% daily growth rate over the past 10 days. 
At 30% per day, the number of deaths reached yesterday (780) will reach 1,000 today. It would reach 10,000 by April 3, 100,000 by April 12 (the day Trump wants the country to be open again) and 1 million by April 21. At 41%, we would reach 1 million dead by April 14.
This is not about politics. This is about human lives. It’s time for our leaders to start recognizing it as such and make responsible decisions. A week ago, the President said, “Nobody knew there would be a pandemic or epidemic of this proportion.” He has made countless such comments that are equally ridiculous.
I’m a guy doing his own research, with no medical training or insider knowledge, and I started writing about this months ago. By simply paying attention to publicly available data, I knew enough to sound the alarm on Feb 24….
Even though the US has relatively few cases, it’s only a matter of time before the coronavirus affects every single person in the US. My projections indicate we’ll see over 500 deaths within the next month. How many businesses will remain open?
…even as President Trump was actively playing down the threat – seemingly prioritizing market gains. 
Why are we just now ramping up PPE and ventilator manufacturing and imposing lockdowns – a neat euphemism for quarantines? What could possibly justify the delay? How many must die before our elected officials take this seriously?
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Futures have been all over the map following yesterday’s algo-driven short-covering extravaganza. But, the initial objective was achieved: SPX and ES both broke above the trend line in place since the February highs. 
As has been the case after each of these Tuesday spikes, the big question is whether the gains can hold.
continued for members…
VIX continues to play a major role in driving stock prices. Note that it dropped as low as the SMA20 and backtested the SMA10 before diving just prior to the open.
This has allowed both ES and SPX to top their SMA10s…
…which takes the pressure off CL and USDJPY to continue rising.
Coupled with the EURUSD going nowhere, this allows DXY to remain below its .618/.886 resistance, saving some dry powder for the next disastrous headline – which could be when US COVID-19 deaths reach 1,000 later today.
The government bond market has settled down, now that it’s apparently under total FOMC control. The 2s10s has been sitting right at the white TL all morning.
…as the 2Y is still playing cat and mouse with one of our horizontal support levels at .34 and the 10Y is doing the same with the 1.272 at 8.16.
A reminder, the EIA will release inventory data at 10:30 this morning.
UPDATE: 10:38 AM
A small build in oil and a small draw in gas. Both are up very slightly on the news…
…which is enough to keep ES/SPX above their SMA10s… 
…with a little help from VIX. 
Bottom line, we’re still in algo-mode and could remain so until the next headline which is too ugly to ignore. The SMA10s are the lines in the sand.
I have several calls scheduled over the next 2-3 hours. I’ll post more later.
UPDATE: 3:35 PM
SPX and ES are up over 4%, while DJIA is up almost 6% and rising. 
CL has technically rejoined its rising channel and RB is up almost 24%. Algos are eating it up. But, note that RB has merely backtested its white channel bottom – a sell signal — which is something CL already did twice on Mar 19 and Mar 20. 
While USDJPY has made a lower high for a change and is likely to drop to the rising wedge bottom (110.89) or channel top (109.77).
…and VIX is barely up on day. 
Of course, it’s way lower than it was at its overnight highs. Remember, this cycling – also practiced by CL and USDJPY – is a common practice. Ramp VIX higher overnight while futures are easily propped up and then hammer it as the market opens.
Last, check out the bearish steepening going on in the 2s10s.
Haven’t seen details on the bailout bill yet, but the market is acting as though it will save the economy. Hard to imagine… What is easy to imagine is what stocks will do if the bill fails to impress or, gulp, pass. And, don’t forget the old adage: Buy the rumor, sell the news. Another silly day, another risky close for both bulls and bears.
Though ES/SPX are back above their yellow channel bottoms and SMA10s, it’s still coin-flipping time. If they close below their SMA10s, I’d not want to risk staying long overnight. Even closing slightly over, I’d be nervous as hell and feeling somewhat bearish. Remember, unemployment claims and the third GDP estimate come out tomorrow morning and we should see scary COVID-19 data tonight.
UPDATE: 4:15 PM
At the close, barely over a 1% gain for ES and SPX. Not a great sign for bulls…
Apparently, not everyone is happy with the bill.
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/489449-cuomo-numbers-dont-work-in-terrible-senate-stimulus-package
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/25/senate-vote-coronavirus-rescue-package-deal-148135