The good news is that the Senate passed a bill that will presumably help big and small businesses stay alive for the next month or so. Along with the Fed’s trillions, this has the potential to keep stocks on the rise.
The bad news is that COVID-19 cases and deaths continue to rise unabated, with deaths reaching 1,000 yesterday as per our forecast. Market pundits seem to believe the curve will be flattened and the crisis limited to a few more weeks. But, the numbers don’t support that – not unless a vaccine or treatment is unveiled in the next week or two and the entire country is placed on lockdown.
The 10-day moving average for the daily growth rate in deaths has ticked higher to 31.4%. At that rate, we will see 10,000 deaths by April 3 and 100,000 by April 11. In Italy, the mortality rate has topped 10% of total cases – the result of hospitals being overwhelmed, which is currently the case in NY and increasingly the case in other rising hot spots in the US.
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Futures are following the algos’ lead again this morning, with ES ignoring the 3.3 million unemployment claims and recovering 77 points off their lows…
…following another timely VIX beat down from overnight highs.
continued for members…
Note that ES and SPX have both topped their SMA10s and yellow channel bottoms – technically in the clear. 
This gives USDJPY, which has officially broken down, a chance to backtest its SMA200… 
…and should allow CL to react at its SMA10 – also its 2016 lows.
It’s not too hard to imagine CL continuing to bounce in this 20-26 range for an extended period of time.
RB has broken out past a minor TL, but I don’t see an extended rally at this time. 
If it breaks above the purple channel bottom and yesterday’s high at .639ish, however, by all means go long with tight stops. 
The bond market remains under tight control, the the 2s10s locked in at 48 bps – the level of the white TL. 
The 10Y continues to hang around the 1.272 and will likely remain in this range until the next leg down in equities – after the monthly/quarterly rebalancing is completed.
One other thing to consider re the big picture: the DJIA has reached the .236 line of the rising white channel – the larger and potentially more important one that allows for a tag at 16,300 in the next month or two. 
While the purple channel bottom and red channel backtest are/were important, this is a level worth keeping an eye on – particularly if today’s rally falters at DJIA 22,000 and SPX 2537.
Note that if ES exceeds 2561, it will complete an inverted Head & Shoulders pattern. And, I just don’t put much stock in that scenario. I’m more of the belief that this rally falters here as those playing the bounce take profits and sell to those who must increase their equity exposure for rebalancing purposes. 
But, never say never. If ES can push through 2561, I’d want to be long with relatively tight stops until the end of the month.
Meanwhile, bulls should keep an eye on USDJPY. Its latest breakout above the red channel top (110ish) should fail, providing a strong sell signal for stocks. It broke briefly below it this morning, but got a bounce on the sharply rising SMA10 at 109.37.
Between that and the rising EURUSD…
…DXY is taking a hit that will weigh on stocks. 
Gold continues to be the beneficiary.
More later.
UPDATE: 12:58 PM
ES has pushed through its neckline, but has ground to a halt over the past 45 minutes at the thin purple TL connecting the 2016 and 2018 lows — same as SPX.
I don’t want to read too much into it, but DXY is still fading — nearing its SMA200 …
…as EURUSD tests the white channel top (just below its own SMA200)…
…and USDJPY is at is session lows at its SMA10.This action is not helpful to stocks. 
Nor is VIX’s bounce at the intersection of its red neckline and SMA20 and backtesting the yellow TL connecting its 2011 and 2015 highs.
CL is fading, going backwards.
Traders might want to explore shorting ES here at 2590 with tight stops.
UPDATE: 3:40 PM
This close is shaping up no more clear than the last two…the overhead resistance mentioned above is still there. 
But, VIX is also in a good place if it wants to plunge 4-5 and send ES up to its SMA20 at 2654.50.
FWIW, the 2s10s is edging higher.
GLTA.