DXY just made it official, tagging the .618 Fib at 88.423 overnight.  It came close on Jan 26, coming within 0.015 before a strong bounce which surprised a lot of people by not supporting stocks.This latest move, along with VIX reaching our downside target, made it possible for ES to tag our first upside target from Feb 5 – albeit two days late.I suspect this had more to do with SPX’s delay in tagging its own SMA200 than anything else.  Bottom line, our analog remains on track.

continued for members…VIX still threatening to drop to those lower targets.

As we discussed yesterday, SPX has multiple downside targets from which to choose, starting with a backtest of its 2.24 at 2703.  The most “honest” backtest would be of the white channel midline around 2685, but who knows if TPTB will allow that large a drop.UPDATE:  12:45 PM

Well, we got our answer — they wanted to bag the .618s first.  Aided by VIX, of course. Now, having said that, I like the support that VIX has here.  I’d look for its bounce to begin here, meaning stocks have probably maxed out for the day.  If VIX drops through that TL, of course, there’s more immediate upside ahead.Also, for those playing CL and RB, this still looks like a good place for RB to reverse.CL’s a little more complicated, don’t see a clear cut case at this time.  That yellow channel should mean something, but it’s been broached before.