March CPI rose at a new 41 year high: 8.5% YoY (8.4% expected) and 1.2% MoM (highest since 2005.)

Algos spiked higher on the news… …as VIX was crushed.continued for members…The bigger picture for equities shows ES is nearing a bearish 10/20 cross. Note that I’ve sketched in a neckline connecting the two most recent highs. I don’t expect an IH&S to play out. But we frequently get close to one just prior to sharp declines [see: Ten Lousy Points.]

Note that VIX is coming up on a bullish (bearish for stocks) 10/20 cross.Oil and gas are higher this morning, with CL holding below $100 after its recent TL and SMA50 breakdown. RB’s SMA50 is still holding.

This continues to fuel the 10Y’s breakout. It could still reverse, but that’s unlikely as long as oil, gas and stocks continue to hold current levels.  A breakdown in oil/gas could thwart any further upside as could (as we’ve been saying for months) a sharp downturn in stocks.In currencies, USDJPY’s purple neckline has held so far, raising the likelihood of a backtest of the red or even the white neckline. I still expect USDJPY to at least pause here and wait for the MAs to catch up. Likewise, EURUSD is pausing before its next leg down – which should accompany stocks’. It shouldn’t amount to much, just enough to create a little space for DXY to resume its climb.Speaking of resuming its climb, GC is making a bid to push back into its broken purple channel. If it can remain above the channel bottom, currently at 1970, it would have another crack at 2089. But, it’s still long overdue for a backtest of its purple neckline at 1823. Similarly, SI is attempting another push above its red fan line from the Feb 1 highs. It has already tagged its SMA200, which could suffice as long as overall markets don’t crater in the next week or two. BTC is backtesting the purple TL and channel midline, with the pink channel bottom waiting patiently at 36,450ish.