Futures are up modestly this morning on the Dow reconfiguration chicanery and stock split mumbo jumbo. The Dow reconfiguration is, like all that have come before it, designed to do one thing: deliberately boost the current and future value of the Dow by adding winners and ditching losers.
That’s why the Dow is a meaningless measure of market performance and is, at best, a signal to the wary of the games being played to portray economic health. Perfect example: the Dow’s sharp reversal on March 23 after it had fallen to its 2016 election lows.
The stock split mumbo jumbo should be ignored altogether. Exchanging a $5 bill for 5 singles produces no net increase in value, but don’t tell the Robin Hood traders. They’re convinced that value of AAPL and TSLA has been enhanced via the maneuver.
The thing people should be watching today is VIX which, though its 10/20 cross failed last Friday, is back for another bite of the poisoned apple.
continued for members…
VIX could pull the same stunt as Friday, but it seems to me its days are numbered.
SPX has a clear path to a backtest…or lower. 
Oil and gas appear to be rolling over.
On the currency front, more of the same. EURUSD is going sideways as USDJPY bounces slightly and DXY edges lower.
Gold and silver continue to exhibit signs of breakouts.
The bond market is fairly quiet, with 10Y yields slipping slightly following last week’s Fed-induced rise.
I have several calls and errands scheduled today, so will sign out until later this afternoon. I might be heading to NY tomorrow for the day, but it’s still up in the air. If it comes together, I’ll be able to post in the morning only. And, I will definitely be out of the office on Thursday and Friday – no posts either day unless I get a chance Friday afternoon.
The key for those interested in shorting is for ES to drop through its SMA15-200, currently around 3500.
The other chart to watch – as always – is VIX. We’d want to see it break above the falling red TL shown below.
more later...