Moment of Truth

It is perhaps fitting that SPX has waited until today to peak again.  Today is Mario Draghi’s last press conference as president of the ECB but also as presider over the great monetary experiment which has kept the euro zone on life support for the past 10 years.

SPX is poised to reach 3004.51, our favored upside analog target which I had all but given up on.  The futures already reached it and, then some….  …tagging the highest of the targets we set back on Aug 27 [see: Analog on Track.]

Yes it’s very late.  But, as they say…better late than never.  SPX’s version is 3004.51.Whether or not the futures can cling to a small gain until the cash market opens is irrelevant to.  From a Fib standpoint, yesterday’s finish is close enough.  What matters is whether we get the swift downdraft to new cycle lows that the analog forecast in July.

Meanwhile, core CPI just topped estimates, reaching levels not seen since September 2008.  More fuel for the no-rate-cut camp.  With the Fed unlikely to unveil any dovish surprises next week, stocks will have to rely on Trump’s next trade-related-say-whatever-it-takes-to-reach-new-highs tweet.  It has always worked before. How many times, however, will the algos fall for this crap?

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