The past few days have seen an escalation in the battle between market forces and Trump’s tweet-driven algos. Trump and his minions are desperate to see stocks make new all-time highs and have issued a steady stream of breathless trade and tax-related pronouncements possessing little substance but great influence on the algos.
The algos have, so far, been happy to ignore stronger than expected economic data which would ordinarily argue against an FOMC rate cut next week.
With futures backing off their earlier highs, it remains to be seen whether Trump’s campaign can prevail. If not, it’s a very long ways down. About 200 points, to be precise.
continued for members…This latest leg up for ES has put its C=A target at 2772, only slightly below the Aug 5 lows but 48 points below the SMA200. 
The picture for SPX is a little less onerous. If futures can shed a few more points before the open we’ll have a nice little evening star candle for yesterday — a fairly good reversal pattern.
There are so many downside targets I hesitate to chart them all.
Lots of support to break through if the analog is to work out…
As before, it will require CL to break down… 
…and VIX to bottom here. Note that the new lows put its C=A target very close to the white .618. An precise overlap would require VIX 13.48.
USDJPY has been happy to support stocks at every opportunity, pushing slightly above its channel top. A reversal is needed for the bears to have much of a shot here.
The bond market, which has been a very reliable indicator when the smoke and mirrors were a constant source of head fakes, says that stocks are heading lower. We’ll see.
UPDATE: 3:45 PM
Almost got a little downside going for a few minutes, but VIX wouldn’t have it. USDJPY and CL are actively working to keep stocks from correcting.
The little H&S shaping up targets 2984, about where the purple channel .786 line is, not even close to the SMA10.
Stocks want to correct, but algos slamming the door shut at every opportunity.
This is all too familiar, just like the days leading up to many FOMC meetings. We still have Monday, but the analog is looking rather sickly at the moment. I’m going to stick my neck out and call this bounce over. But, seeing as it’s the weekend and Friday the 13th, exercise caution. There is absolutely no reason for stocks to go any higher, but that doesn’t seem to matter much lately.
GLTA.