It’s been a great time to be a chartist, lately.  ES reached our 2.24 Fib target yesterday, reaching 2728.75 around noon and bouncing 40+ points to nearly the SMA200.  At the same time, AAPL came within .27 of its next downside target……and TNX came within 0.15 of its next downside target.But, it’s the factors which haven’t reached their targets which suggest there’s more fun ahead for the bears — that the current bounce is probably a nifty bit of misdirection.

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Consider that neither SPX nor COMP have reached important support.

And, VIX is still holding support.And, CL and RB haven’t reached their next downside targets. The most compelling clue, though, remains the bond market.  The 2s10s is back up to horizontal resistance and the 2Y and 10Y have clearly broken down. Bonus chart of the day…BA not only broke down thru long-term TL support… …but, it’s backtesting that (now) resistance this morning.More later.

UPDATE: 3:40 PM

Pretty strong bounce going, but no evidence yet as to whether this will be a May 13 style bounce that tests the channel top, SMA100 and red neckline at 2802 or something stronger.  If we get a reversal, the secondary H&S would complete, targeting ES 2498 / SPX 2495.Note that COMP is almost backtesting its SMA200.

And, VIX is about to backtest its.