After a sharp rally, stocks are back to flat for the month of February. More importantly, many of the factors driving the rally have reversed course.
Is it a case of the jitters ahead of Tuesday’s CPI report or something more?
continued for members…
The steep, white channel guiding the rally since Jan 18 has finally yielded. In its place, we have a purple channel that takes us all the way back to December. It’s still over 50 points away from a backtest of the large white falling channel from 2022. So, ES remains broken out until it drops back through 4006 or so.
Once it reaches the white channel top, it still has to contend with the SMA50 and SMA200.
SPX’s alternate channel has held pretty handily, with the same MA support to contend with.
While, COMP is a long way away from a golden cross.

The currency front hasn’t changed. EURUSD’s rising wedge has clearly broken down, while DXY is till hinting at a breakout.
There’s news that Kazuo Ueda will be the next BoJ governor. The yen is still sorting out what that means, but NKD appears to be rolling over rather than making new highs.
GC, SI and BTC are all trying to stabilize after a pretty awful yesterday.
CL and RB have both backtested about as much as they can…
…while TNX has clearly broken out.

