VIX broke out of its falling white channel from December and, so far at least, hasn’t fallen back in. It’s at least a glimmer of hope for the bears, as is the fact that a potential Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern hasn’t completed.

The other chart that should have bulls a little on edge is the 10Y. After bouncing nicely at our 200-day MA target, it’s on the brink of a breakout.

Has stocks’ bear market bounce finally played out?

continued for members…

We’re still left with the same question as the past few weeks: Will DJIA’s SMA200 provide a floor?

Note that ES could easily push through the purple neckline, but has been coiling beneath it for the past week. Note that DJIA has failed to break out of the new, less bearish white channel.Even NKD has failed to break out. We note, however, that when VIX broke out in December the market’s reaction was rather muted. And, ES’ decline was soon arrested by a new falling VIX channel.

A reminder – XLU suggests a rather large decline is possible next week.

DXY is arguing otherwise this morning, falling back after reaching the small red TL below thanks to EURUSD getting a bump.

Though USDJPY is off slightly at a time when NKD could use a boost. GC, SI and BTC are all continuing their own bear market bounces.

We’ll get fresh CPI numbers on Monday, meaning bears will have to choose whether to spend the whole weekend short. It’s too close to call, but at this point it seems like their lot is improving.

Stay tuned…