Intra-day: September 16, 2011

UPDATE:  2:45 PM

A quick look at the big picture.  Check out the Big Red Line.  Looks like a backtest, no?

A closer look:

UPDATE:  12:50 PM

Very interesting Butterfly completing on Nasdaq 100 (NDX.)

The 5 year daily chart shows it’s backtesting a three-year trendline. 

UPDATE:  12:40 PM

SPX just a couple bucks from an intra-day Gartley completing.  The .786 is just over 1216.

UPDATE:  12:00 PM


SPX completed a Bat pattern at the .886 Fib level.  It’s not terribly well-formed, with point B being too high and C too low.  But, the .886 Fib retrace is right on the money.  It roughly corresponds to the +1 regression channel line (dates back to Aug 8) as well as Trend Line B that saved the bears’ bacon back on Aug 31 and Sep 1.

This rally has gone 30 points past the highest level I thought it was capable of; so, I call this the top with a great deal of trepidation.  However, similar reversal patterns are setting up across the market.



Intra-day: September 16, 2011 — 13 Comments

  1. Hold had to accentuate… "The .786 is just over 1216." My TOS shows 1216.01… Is it agreed this is "just over 1216"… Come on you cant make this stuff up… Great call!!!
    Short 100%

  2. Masked: Would that it were true. I'd be sailing off to my private island for the weekend.

    But, I very much appreciate the compliment. It's been a long week for da bears.

    ckorey: not saying it couldn't happen. I just don't think it will. Guess next week will tell.

  3. RE: june-july…………notice we went flat a day or two and then another pop higher………….that is what i'm saying my happen here.

    Notice how similar the tight up channel is on both

  4. In 2007, which I view as analogous to this market's top, the wave 4 rebound was to the .382 level, followed by a 140 point wave 5 drop to complete Intermediate wave 1. The wave 2 retrace to the original .50 fib took two months. That remained the high for the next several years.

    In this market, our initial rebound was to the 8/31 high at the .50 fib level. I think we are still overdue for wave 5 down, which will complete Inter. 1.

    In 2001, BTW, the initial retrace was also to the .50 level from the top. It was followed by a 380 point drop to complete wave 1.

    There's no guarantee we'll follow the same playbook, but I wouldn't bet against it.

  5. I realize I'm talking to myself here but for readers………….

    1185-1187 should hold then up again into FED meeting perhaps.

    Still has potential to 1260.

    If short here I would hedge.

  6. From the high of 1371 to low of 1101…………..

    50 fib …………….1235

    61.8 fib ………….1260

    I have turn dates end of next week.

  7. Big spy put bets that were way out of the money have dried up in terms of volume. Just FYI.

    Pivots at 1219 and 1229 so some sort of pause is due here soon. It is also wedging.

    That being said there is still room after a pause to 1260…………(Fed meets next week).