The short answer: not much longer, as I’ll explain below.
Our forecast remains on track, despite the unnerving chop and deteriorating news flow. The latest: the British pound, which flash crashed yesterday despite the supposed control of TPTB.
We remain long from 2148.63 on Tuesday.
continued for members…
DB came up just short of the .618 yesterday, but today’s a new day.
The USDJPY hasn’t declined much since reaching the white .886, and a careful drawing of the channel indicates it could rise a little more if necessary, maybe even topping the white 1.000 before reaching the white channel midline.
DX has finally reacted – after breaking through the purple TL. It should at least backtest, but will it drop back through? Unclear.
Gold is holding the white channel bottom and the SMA200…so far.
We’re seeing a little reaction from CL at the white channel top. But, it remains above the yellow neckline.
With the futures currently off 4.5 points, SPX still has a decent chance of reaching 2171.73. But, as I posted yesterday, it could conceivably wait until Monday. Note the white dashed line – a neckline for a small potential IH&S Pattern.
The placement of the triangle’s top is tricky, as the falling white channel is placed properly relative to other bottoms and midline tags, but the falling purple TL connects the actual, intraday tops. Bottom line, if it plays out to 2170-2173, it might not be a clean reversal.
Still, I’d plan on shorting at 2171ish unless USDJPY and/or CL are shooting higher, or VIX is being hammered. In other words, use reasonable stops. Triangles always eventually break out or down. And, this one is getting pretty long in the tooth.
Comments
5 responses to “How Long Will This Go On?”
PW, Oct 11 is a holiday but stock market would open. As you described before, TPTB love 3 day weekend. TPTB probably love it even more when market open on Monday with very thin trading volume.
Bad news is good news for stocks as usual. Big miss on jobs report sent ES shooting up, USD/JPY down… this is a circus.
Yes, it is. I work very hard every day to not let that bother me, as it only interferes with good forecasting and profitable trading. The key is to figure out what the ringmaster has planned next.
True. ES bounce seems to be fading already… And thank you for your hard work sir! Every market has to face reality eventually, it’s the timing that is so, so difficult.
And yet, good day today! Collected many many points, both short and long. Thank you for the charts again, sir!