Running a little late this morning, so two quick charts right up front.  Everything I posted yesterday still applies.

continued for members…

UPDATE:  1:15 PM

My apologies for the delay.  My wife and daughters joined me on this trip.  We’re visiting a very sick uncle as well as taking my 17 yo daughter for official visits to colleges that are recruiting her for volleyball.

We stopped at a local Chipotle last night for a quick bite.  We wife’s been sick ever since, and I’m not exactly in the pink, myself.  Fortunately, the girls were not affected.  It’s been a hectic morning…

Anyways…  The interesting thing about today is that USDJPY and CL are pushing boundaries, but stocks are selling off anyways.  USDJPY has done everything but make a new high.  It’s running into trouble here at a rising channel midline and the white .886.

And, CL, while it’s above 50, has run into the top of the falling white channel.There’s a lot more talk about a rate hike just ahead, and that’s boosting the USD big time.  However, it ran into TL resistance this morning.  So, it looks likely to reverse..…especially since GC tagged its SMA200 and the bottom of a pretty good looking channel earlier — usually good for a bounce.  Worth another stab at 1380 as long as it holds the SMA200 or at least the channel – critical support.

But, this is far from a sure thing.  CL is rising in order to keep stocks rising, and DX needs to rise in order to mitigate rising oil prices.  DX rising means USDJPY rises and GC dropping.  So, its a weird situation, especially with the Fedspeak tossed in (talking up a rate rise, hence the rising USD.)

As we discussed a couple of days ago, SPX is in a triangle — meaning it’s coiling for either a breakdown or breakout.  I’d say the odds are it continues up to the top of the triangle either late today or Friday.  Monday is even a possibility.  From there, it gets tricky.  Hopefully, it’ll be Friday afternoon and everyone will go to cash anyways.  But, we’ll see.

As my wife would could tell you, shit happens (she’s not using her usual, very proper Junior League voice today!)  The closer we get to the apex, the more likely we’ll get a big move one way or the other.  Deutsche Bank is obviously one potential catalyst, but hardly the only one.

My best guess remains 2172 as posted yesterday — the white .886 and purple .786, either later today or tomorrow. I’ll hopefully be able to post some more this afternoon.  Trade safe.