The overnight ramp job might feel like the real thing……if not for USDJPY’s breakdown.  If the wizards really wanted to complete the IH&S Pattern and send ES soaring to 2800, there’s no way in the world USDJPY wouldn’t have held the TL it’s been working on since Jun 25. Note the negative divergence between the pair (higher highs) and ES (lower high.)

VIX made a valiant effort.  And never say never, of course.  After all, SPX did bounce off the critically important 2.24 extension again.  And, holidays are notorious for nonsensical leaps over tall buildings. But, for the time being, this looks like a headfake.  ES 2743 and SPX 2741.50 are the (neck)lines in the sand.

continued for members…Currencies are getting lots of attention this morning, with the yuan and Turkish lira both tumbling.  The dollar, on the other hand, is still hanging in there.

One somewhat surprising development is that the latest CL ramp to new highs… …isn’t having more of an impact on equities.  It continues to far outpace RB, which has regained almost half of yesterday’s losses.I’m still focused on the likely drop in RB, which should have an impact on TNX. UPDATE:  11:55 AM

So far, so good.  VIX has held horizontal support, much like back in mid-June.

So far, DJI continues to trade below its SMA200. SPX is inching lower, likely to at least close this morning’s gap.  Below that, the SMA500 at 2724ish, and, as per our forecast, the SMA200.The dollar continues to look vulnerable.

It’s not helping that USDJPY continues lower. Interest rates are also under pressure — between the USD and RB.Oil and especially gas are weakening.  Al Jazeera reports that the Saudis will acquiesce to Trump’s request that they pump more oil.This should help stocks find their way lower.