Charts I’m Watching: Jul 2, 2018

SPX reached our upside target quickly enough, but the reversal held off until the last hour of the day.Part of the problem, of course, was the CL/RB ramp.  The other was USDJPY, which popped through the previous high as expected.It won’t be enough, though, as the SMA200s are finally close enough to let volatility go where it wants.  The only questions are when and whether the SMA200s will hold.  ES’ SMA200 is only gaining about 1-pt per day, so there’s little value in delaying it any further.

The nice thing about the all-clear is that oil and gas should finally be free to make their moves.  Without quarter-end equity numbers to protect, we should get some good action.

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