If you liked Tuesday, you’ll probably like today.  We have an apparent overnight ramp in RB and CL (to the same overhead resistance)……a dip in VIX (to the same support)……and, another close by DJI below its SMA200.This time, S&P futures are up 17.5 points (previously 12) and still haven’t broken out of the falling channel from Jun 13 nor above the IH&S neckline.It’s not hard to imagine the instructions arriving from the Hamptons: “just don’t let it crash!”

And, speaking of crashes…I saw a few very interesting charts this morning.  The first depicted a pace of corporate buybacks that was shocking.  According to BAML, corporate buybacks are practically the only net purchasers so far this year.  Imagine that.

The other put the rise in gas prices into perspective.  Most Americans are spending incrementally more on gas than they received in cuts from the recent tax bill. Take the lowest 20% earners and multiple the 8% of their income spent on gas in 2016 by the 30% YoY increase we’ve seen.  The 2%+ increase in expenses easily outpaces the zero-point-whatever benefit they received from the tax bill.  No wonder Trump is getting a little nervous.

Or is he?  If you’re the leader of the free world and have a direct line to the leader of every friendly OPEC member, is a tweet really the most effective way to get your message across?  Or, is it just possible the tweets are window dressing, intended for his supporters?  Just a thought.

continued for members…

Around the horn…

VIX still has plenty of upside if the horizontal support holds again.

ES, still locked in the falling channel after failing to complete the IH&S.

DJI – another close below its SMA200.  This sets a record, by the way, for the most negative days in a row for DJI.TNX still looks quite weak to me.  If/when RB goes, it should too. The dollar isn’t taking it well. Which means EURUSD is getting another bounce. While USDJPY bounces (barely) off a backtest. A reminder of where the larger white channel lies, and that everything since February has been a backtest of a broken rising channel.Oil’s back to the channel top, threatening but failing to break out. And, RB’s still testing the channel midline, fan line, and SMA50 — same as the past 8 sessions.SPX will test its SMA10 this morning and likely fall back.  I continue to favor a drop to the SMA200.  But, cautious types should obviously keep an eye on the 2.24.  The midline of the falling white channel passes through it today.  So, it carries additional weight.UPDATE:  3:55 PM

Up to but not beyond the neckline at the close, and DJIA is still below its SMA200 — all still somewhat bearish.CL and RB both had a lackluster day.  Inventories showed a build instead of the expected draw.  And, the Aramco deal is supposedly dead.  Still, they both managed to not crash.

The only positives, VIX is back down to horizontal support and USDJPY didn’t crash. I take it back…DJIA spiked up a few points literally in the last 10 seconds of trading.  So, it closed at 24358 versus the SMA200 of 24353.  Sigh…

I have a few charts on other indices, etc. to post tonight and tomorrow, but plan to take tomorrow, Monday and possibly Tuesday off.  Will post more as my plans firm up.

GLTA.