Futures are off slightly this morning as most every chart we watch are within striking distance of their 200-DMA. It’s no surprise that this is happening just ahead of a market holiday.

Even DB – a stock many have left for dead and one of my favorite canaries in the coal mine — gapped higher and has nearly reached its 200-DMA.Could we see actual resistance come in at this important moving average or will we see the typical holiday ramp to higher highs?

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Note that AAPL has risen as far as it can go without making new cycle highs.ES is about 38 points shy of its SMA200 at 2998.54. While, SPX is 27.58 short of its.In other words, if/when SPX reaches its SMA200, ES will still have a few points to go. This means an undershoot for ES or an overshoot for SPX. If we had actual market integrity, SPX’s tag would matter and we’d almost certainly be looking at a reversal. But…

One alternative is that SPX could reach its today and reverse, leaving ES to tag its overnight or over the weekend after cash buyers have been suckered into short positions.  Just saying…

VIX is still in the drivers’ seat, with little support between it and the white channel midline which provided last week’s lows. With USDJPY available as a backup just in case.EURUSD came within .0005 of its SMA200… …with DXY respecting its support so far. If the white channel breaks down, the SMA200 is at 98.446.CL broke above the 2008 lows, meaning it now has upside to the gap at 41.05.It’s a little jumbled on the 60-min chart, but FWIW the rising white channel reaches that level early next week.

While RB has reached its midline and should be pretty much done for now.  The midline is right about 1.11.

The bond market is a non-factor this morning, with the 2s10s backing off and both the 2Y and 10Y settling back into a non-threatening range.

UPDATE:  9:50 AM

Now that the market has opened and the futures have settled down, ES’ SMA200 is right at 2996.61 and SPX’s is 2999.48 – only 3 points away. ES is trading 5.04 higher than SPX, which means that when ES reaches its SMA200 at 2996.61, SPX will be at 2991.57ish – 8 points shy of its SMA200.

AAPL just made a new high. But, moments later, VIX bumped higher. So, it would appear that they’re going to drag this out. We’ll see if SPX responds to AAPL’s breakout. In the meantime, the Dow has not yet made a higher high or reached its .618… …and COMP is closing in on its .886.NKD continues to bump up against strong overhead resistance. more later…

UPDATE:  11:11 AM

ES and SPX have given up their SMA100s, with ES about to test its overnight lows.  There are lots of places this could go, with the .618s at ES 2930.12 and SPX 2934.49 the first support, followed by the SMA10s at 2899.70/2899.61 and SMA20s at 2881.03/2880.74. UPDATE:  3:50 PM

Your basic stall – which allows a backtest of ES’ broken white channel at a level above the SMA200.  Watch out for a last minute dive down to the .618 at 2930.12.