Dallas Fed president just gave a nice preview of the Fed’s April minutes due out later today. The highlight: we’ll need to do more. It’s the same message we’re hearing from all the FOMC members, and the same message the market is taking to heart as the Fed’s balance sheet explodes higher on its way to $10 trillion.

Stocks broke down at the close yesterday. And then, to no one’s surprise, they piled on another 50 points overnight.

continued for members…

The bigger picture in ES which is now about 42 points shy of its SMA200…

…and SPX’s headfake: As before, much still depends on VIX’s breakdown to its SMA200.USDJPY is closing in on its own SMA200 as it constructs a rising wedge. Oil and gas are slipping higher, though CL hasn’t yet pushed above its 2008 lows… …and RB will soon push up against its white channel midline at 1.117ish. On the bond front, yesterday’s threatened breakout in the 2s10s fizzled… …as the 10Y settled back down… …and, the 2Y is hanging on to 17 bps.AAPL is ramping higher in the after-hours – but no new highs. And DB failed to break out so far.UPDATE:  3:50 PM

If the algos have their way, SPX could easily leapfrog its SMA200 tomorrow.  All it would take is a drop by VIX to its SMA200…

…and/or rise by USDJPY to its SMA200.  Heck, even AAPL rising above 327.85 would do the trick (it came within 0.17 of May 12th’s 319.69 high today.) ES’ rising white channel will reach 2996.15 by around 8:15 ET tonight…

…so it might not even wait until tomorrow morning’s economic data which could also easily be manipulated to be “much better than expected!”

There’s no guarantee, of course. Maybe the data will be much worse. Maybe 5mm coronavirus cases will matter. Maybe the Fed will have second thoughts about a $10 trillion balance sheet.  Wouldn’t that be something?

GLTA.