While I’m waiting for Hostgator to undo the damage they did when they “upgraded” pebblewriter.com, here are the relevant charts for the day. I hope to be back on the main site by the end of the day.
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The IH&S that ES completed yesterday failed overnight, but we’re still waiting to see whether the rising white channel bottom – currently 2487 – will hold.
With ES and SPX back above their SMA10s, the momentum has been with the bulls. 
However, VIX has broken above the red TL from a week ago, offering the green light for lower prices.
CL is also probing lower, with the same effect.
And, as expected, USDJPY is backtesting its SMA200.
Bottom line, everything that VIX, USDJPY and CL have done so far have been bearish, but ES has not yet broken trend. If/when the rising white channel breaks down, we can say the trend has shifted. A drop back through the SMA10 (ES 2418 and SPX 2452) would be confirmation.
UPDATE: 11:25 AM
CL is testing former lows and USDJPY has dropped through its SMA200. This has allowed SPX to find its channel bottom — though ES has not quite reached its.
I suspect we’ll see ES’ white channel break down and the purple channel I just added take over very soon – something we call “channel tilting.” Lately, of course, these sorts of things have been happening after-hours.
UPDATE: 3:40 PM
…while VIX has held its breakout… 
…USDJPY has dropped through its SMA200… 
…and CL is still slumping.
The past three sessions have seen large selloffs in the after-hours followed by ramp jobs into the next morning’s open. All the signs point to a sell-off, but you know that old adage about twice-burned?
GLTA.