Most of the signs are not very bearish. We haven’t had a decent reversal candle. VIX is in the basement. The moving averages are all wrong. But, our analog says otherwise. So, let’s be bearish, shall we?
continued for members…
The big picture hasn’t changed a bit from yesterday. SPX is still aiming for 2783.57, though the SMA200 is now up to 2813.14 and will reach the .707 at 2816.47 within days.
The comparison… 
ES’ version:
VIX’s target is still 28ish.
The only thing that ‘s been a little surprising is that CL and USDJPY haven’t had to send any bearish signals in order to get stocks to slide. In fact, they’re still being supportive — meaning they’re rallying just to keep stocks’ plunge from being worse than it would be.
Interestingly, NKD is not taking USDJPY’s bait.
Of course, it’s possible they are being held in reserve for the bigger push that will be necessary at SPX 2876ish. This is the bottom of the major rising white channel from Dec 26 – marked with a yellow arrow in the charts below.
While I’m thinking about it, note how well the C=A pattern fits. Now, note how the 2783.57 target is in no man’s land from a Fib standpoint. Just want to point out to folks that the white .786 at 2792.83 and (especially) the white .886 at 2762.92 are also legit targets — assuming SPX can push below its SMA200.
Having said that, 2783.57 is still my favorite downside target. Here’s one more reason why…
In 2015, the Jul 7 low was 2044.02, 28.12 or 1.357% lower than the previous (Day 13) low of 2072.14. Applied to our most recent 2019 low at 2822.12 on Aug 5, an additional 1.357% works out to 38.30 points. Subtract 38.30 points from 2822.12 and you get (drumroll please…) 2783.82 which is 0.25 away from the C=A target of 2783.57.
Can’t make this stuff up…
UPDATE: 12:50 PM
Ahead of the AAPL news, here’s the latest chart…
Comments
2 responses to “Getting The Party Started”
Do you still expect an interim bounce on the downside? The corresponding decline in 2015 retraced about .382 over three days before continuing to the final low. (Also, assuming the analog remains on track, it seems an open question whether the low will come “on time” or will run a few days late as the preceding top had done. If so, that would target ~Sep 18 instead of Sep 13.) Thanks!
I have spent many hours pondering this very question. The biggest difference between the two versions thus far is the big drop this past Aug 5, well ahead and much deeper than the 2015 version. Aside from the timing difference, it was accompanied by a SMA200 tag by ES — something that has not happened in SPX. In 2015, the Day 27 lows tagged ES’ SMA200, but not SPX – which came up a few points short. There was, therefore, justification for another leg lower on Jul 7, 2015 — the SMA200 tag that it just missed. With SPX’s SMA200 currently at 2813.21, tagging it would be a lower low – which I think is important from an analog standpoint. In another few days, the SMA200 will have reached the Aug 5 lows, meaning a SMA200 tag wouldn’t make a lower low — which I think is important from the standpoint of making this appear to be one big A-B-C corrective wave. Of course, SPX could always overshoot its SMA200 after 9/13. But, I think they’d rather keep things nice and tidy and not risk a dip much below the SMA200.