FOMC Day: Dec 19, 2018

Oil reached our next downside target range yesterday.  This completes a 40% decline for CL since our Oct 3 top call [see: VIX Takes the Plunge] and brings our YTD gains to 177%.

From our Nov 9 Update on Oil:

CL just reached our next downside target of 59.47 and, RB has reached our target range of 1.58-1.62. This is important support for both which, if broken, would portend much more downside.  If it fails, there are much lower targets that would come into play: the gray .382 at 57.47, the purple .618 at 55.36, the gray .500 at 51.47 and the purple .886 / white .236 / gray .618 at 46.02.

Yesterday’s tag:

While it’s always nice to nail a forecast target, the commentary which accompanied that post was at least as important:

Ultimately, oil and gas’ path forward will decide much about interest rates and broader markets.

CPI dropped from 2.95% in July to 2.18% in November, low enough to prompt many Fed watchers to call for a halt to further rate hikes — which is exactly what led us to call for a sharp decline in oil and gas prices in the first place.

The big question is whether it’s enough of a drop.  For the answer to that, we’ll have to wait for the FOMC’s statement this afternoon.

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