Friday marked SPX’s second attempt to top the neckline of a sizeable IH&S Pattern.  The  ramp couldn’t hold, however, and the index tumbled as much as 35 points from its highs.  The futures currently point to another attempt on 2670.  With the Syrian conflict seemingly on the back burner again, will the third attempt succeed?continued for members…The major indices remain on the verge of a breakout.

Though, COMP still needs a 200SMA backtest.The 10-year is popping above overhead resistance again.  The last time this happened, on Mar 21, stocks tumbled.Note that the price channel – a flag pattern – is breaking down.EURUSD might finally be ready to make its move.Which would presumably make it more difficult for USDJPY to push stocks higher.

DXY is still due for a drop to the purple channel bottom (though, as we’ve discussed many times, it could be delayed until reaching the .618 in July.) Gold refuses to roll over just yet — with 1377-1380 still a possibility if DXY let’s go. The 2s10s is bouncing again at the .786.   All things considered, accomplishing a breakout might just come down to VIX…again.Look for SPX to have no trouble reaching the neckline on the open.  Whether or not it can hold is anyone’s guess.  Lately, VIX alone hasn’t been enough.  With bonds looking dicey, and currencies a crap shoot, the odds of a lasting breakout remain mediocre.  Traders should play along on the move, but use stops to protect against another retreat.

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The allergies I thought I was suffering last week turned out to be the flu.  So, I’m in pretty sorry shape today.  I’m heading back to bed for a bit, but hope to rally enough to post the oil and gas post later this morning.  Needless to say, the deescalation in Syria has knocked a little froth off both CL and RB.