Years that end in “7” and Octobers are often full of fireworks.  Since we’re in October of 2017, might we finally get a respite from the melt-up?

continued for members…

RB continues to slump.  Note the targets have changed with the contract roll-over.  My preferred target is 1.4826 — the intersection of the falling white channel midline, the rising red TL and the white .618 retracement.

Remember, we have a target of 11.39 on VIX.

Look for SPX to reverse at 2521ish. No shortage of targets down below, with the initial being 2510.87 and my favorite being 2462.79 and 2335 (very low conviction on those lower numbers.) ES’ chart is a little clearer, and offers an alternative turning point at 2532.21.

GC has reached the SMA100.  I’d cover here, but be prepared for another leg down to 1264.50 after whatever bounce we get.  Set your stops accordingly.USDJPY supports the idea of a bounce in gold, as the white channel is clearly breaking down.  If it drops through the SMA200, it could easily test the yellow channel line at 109.92.DXY is testing the falling white channel midline.

UPDATE:  9:42 AM

SPX has reached the top of the white channel.  I’d be inclined to short it here with tight stops.UPDATE:  9:56 AM

VIX is being crushed, allowing SPX to break above the white channel top.  I’d consider ditching the short here, but would definitely do so it VIX drops through the TL at 9.5. UPDATE:  12:00 PM

Quick note re RB prices…  The EIA reported 2.57/gallon for the month of September.  2.57 is where prices ended up, but this was the low for the month.  In other words, the “average” price that has been reported is demonstrably false.

As we’ve discussed many times, this is done in order to keep reported CPI down to an acceptable level.  At 2.57, we’re looking at a 19% increase YoY from Sep 2016.  I’m thinking CPI will be at least 2% and more likely in the 2.2-2.4% range.  This will force the Fed’s hand in terms of rate hikes — a position they’d rather not be in.

While 1.48 is still my preferred target, there is a decent chance that we’ve seen the lows.  Note the measured move lower as guided by the falling purple channel.

UPDATE:  5:00 PM

I have a few new charts to add, but am dealing with a power outage at the moment.  I’m told it’ll be back on in an hour or two, but we’ll see…

In the meantime, I’m using a cell signal to post this.  As I mentioned above, RB has completed a measured move, with C=A at these levels.  I’d be careful about holding short.  In fact, it would make perfect sense to cover RB here, and re-short if it drops through 1.54.

More later…hopefully.