RBOB has joined VIX and USDJPY in a bearish 10/20 cross, adding slightly to the likelihood of a downturn. Yet, DXY’s breakdown reversed itself overnight on reversals in both EURUSD and USDJPY, meaning that there are still plenty of tricks up this market’s sleeves. Speaking of tricks, President Trump rolled out an EO forestalling evictions which, though it will likely prove difficult if not impossible to enforce, is very popular with the algos. There is arguably no limit to the EOs, Fed and Treasury actions and Congressional bills which are all calculated to improve election odds. So, how is the dollar still standing?

It reminds me of my favorite Monty Python and the Holy Grail moment – John Cleese’s miraculous recovery from being turned into a newt.

continued for members…Futures piled on almost 30 points overnight, though we’re seeing a mild giveback as we approach the open.

Note that ES’ rising white channel bottom has reached the 2.618 extension at 3076, meaning it had better plunge big time right away or give up on the notion of that big a drop without the white channel breaking down. Note that if SPX were to hold at 3531.55, its .618 would equal exactly the 2.24 extension at 2703.62. It will obviously break 3531 on the open, so this forces a potential 2703 tag way down the list.  The ES equivalent is 3626.25. VIX remains in a bullish 10/20 cross – bearish for stocks.  We now have two TLs pointing to the SMA200 at  28.16 within the next couple of sessions.Joining it is RB which, unlike CL, had something to shoot for on the upside – the gap close at 1.384. Also unlike CL, it has already tested its SMA200 plenty.  It’s unusual to see both showing weakness ahead of the weekly EIA inventory report (due at 10:30.) EURUSD, which clearly broke out yesterday, broke back in… …leaving the equity lift to USDJPY which is getting very close to losing its clear path to 102.37.Note that USDJPY remains in a bearish 10/20 cross and EURUSD is very close to a bearish cross. It has remained in a bullish 10/20 alignment since July 8. A drop through 1.80 would probably do it, while the rising white channel bottom is now up to about 1.173.

Perhaps the least likely chart to be noticed by the average speculator: TNX. It has broken down, though very slightly, from the ramp job which began on Aug 6. This opens the door to our downside targets for 10Y yields – an action which has not been beneficial to stocks……and preserves ZN’s path to 144’195. More later.

UPDATE:  3:50 PM

Here’s the ES version of the .618 = 2.24 extension discussed above. It’s still 40+ points away, but there’s a certain symmetry to it.Speaking of symmetry, VIX is not only 2% higher on a big equity rally but is still aiming for the SMA200 at 28.16.  A break above it (it dropped below on Jul 17) would do a number on stocks.CL shed a few pounds today, tagging our .236 channel line. But, you’d never know it from the way stocks soared.RB was affected less, but it’s a trend break just the same. USDJPY is doing what it does best: pretending to break out. Easily the most interesting chart today illustrates member Tim M.’s point that DJIA has finally closed its gap from Feb 21. Note that its RSI has also tagged an interesting TL. Just a reminder, I will be out of the office all day Thursday and Friday. I don’t expect to be able to post either day, but will if I’m able tomorrow morning.

GLTA.