Charts I’m Watching: Sep 25, 2012


EURUSD running out of steam… Would love to short around 1.2971.

DX finding support for continued push higher…stands a very good chance of breaking out of the channel today or tomorrow…  I’m an aggressive buyer at 79.33.

e-minis hitting resistance…

Fading this rally unless we break out of the triangle… currently ranges from 1454-1464 with apex of 1459 on Friday.  Decent chance we’ll tag the upper bound at 1463-1464 before reversing…

More after the open.

UPDATE:  10:20 AM

Ideal spot for reversal: the .786 and white channel bound at 1463.86.

UPDATE:  10:40 AM

EURUSD in the final throws — looking for a butterfly completion at the top of the channel in a rising wedge. Should get a reversal between now and 1:00 PM EDT, ideally at 1.2970.  Immediate potential to the bottom of the channel — currently around 1.28.

The dollar is similarly working towards a Crab Pattern completion at the lower bound of its channel — while in a falling wedge.  Idealized reversal would be at 79.334 between 12-2 PM EDT.   Immediate potential to the top of the two channels (small purple and larger red) around 80.06.

SPX is completing a rising wedge at the upper (white) channel bound — harmonic targets for 1.618/.886/.786  patterns between 1463.32-1463.86.

UPDATE:  11:20 AM

Any minute now…

UPDATE:  12:00 PM

Each of this morning’s targets was reached.  Should get some back tests, but the next move is down.

The rising wedge on SPX broke down and it just broke through the support I was worried about — the lower bound of a larger rising wedge (purple.)

The EURUSD rising wedge broke down, peaking within .0002 of our 1.2971 target.

DX broke out of its falling wedge higher than I anticipated, at 79.375 rather than 79.334.  I have redrawn the channel to reflect the new bottom — ditching the after-hours plunge on the 21st.

SPX and DJIA should turn negative on the day very soon.

I hope everyone was able to make a few bucks this morning.  Downside targets coming up in a few minutes…



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