Loads of positive economic news this morning — which might just upset the “Fed put” narrative.  Durable goods was the biggest beat, coming in at +0.6% versus a consensus drop.  But, the gains came from government/defense orders.  Core goods continue to disappoint.

We’ve been watching for a crack in the meltup, with the next few days vulnerable from a timing standpoint. If 3145 breaks, we could finally get a (barely) meaningful backtest.

continued for members…

The initial support is at the SMA5 200.  If it breaks, then the .618 and SMA10 at 3116-3120 come into play, followed by the 2.618 Fib at 3076.93.  Timing has looked good for the next few days — but, that’s assuming we do get a selloff.VIX’s falling wedge seems to support this scenario.

As we’ve noted, though, ES and SPX have very different 2.618 Fibs, with SPX way down at 3047.34.  So, figuring out the “bottom” could be tricky, especially if it occurs after-hours. USDJPY is backtesting its broken purple channel again — although higher again. Oil and gas are soft this morning. And, bonds have shrugged off the positive news, settling slightly lower. I’ll be off for the rest of the day, tomorrow and Friday.  If anything crazy happens, I’ll post at the end of the day.  Otherwise, I’ll be back on Monday morning.  I wish everyone a safe and happy Thanksgiving!