The ramp job of the past six months started after SPX had broken down below the 200-DMA in June. It subsequently saw a breakout of the falling white channel, four additional near tests of the 200-DMA, a backtest of the falling white channel, a breakout of the rising purple channel, and, last week, a breakout of the rising white channel.
We’ve documented the many gimmicks, tweets and fake news blurbs used to accomplish these breakouts. As of today, there’s nothing left to break out of — just 21 more sessions before the end of the year where the market must decide whether the breakout was the real deal or just an enthusiastic overshoot.
Clearly, holding the breakout would be a major coup for the bulls — which is why ES has tested and held that level 10 times in the past 3 sessions. If it doesn’t hold, it changes things quite a bit.
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