Charts I'm Watching: Nov 13, 2013

For you early birds, ES just reached our price target range from Monday — though admittedly late.

A more drawn-out affair could target the falling white midline late tomorrow afternoon at 1754.50.

Even yesterday, it was looking much more immediate.

I’m looking for 1754-1755 around 12-1am EST tonight. It’s the midline of the biggest falling white corrective channel, and the bottom of the rising red channel — not to mention the target of the H&S Pattern currently setting up.

This remains my top choice for a reversal. The fact that it’s sneaking in after hours is a good sign.

A close-up:

UPDATE: 8:31 AM

There’s the 1754.50 tag — an excellent spot from which to try a long position. As always, use stops. The cash market could easily wake up bearish. The next lower support is around 1750.

More after the open.

UPDATE: 10:25 AM

ES and SPX are almost back to even on the day — this, following a backtest at the white .786 to below the .500 Fib level. In other words, while we could get some more substantial pauses along the way (the .886 at 1763.55?) it’s no longer necessary.

Even more encouraging, the dollar’s small white channel has broken down and is backtesting.

Recall that this channel contained the backtest to the rising red channel that broke down on Sep 18 after a steady 2 1/2 year rise since the May 2011 top.

The dollar is now free to continue weakening. The EURUSD, as expected, broke out of and is backtesting its falling white channel.

But, the big development we’ve been watching is the USDJPY which, as expected, has broken out of and backtested the pennant pattern it’s been in since last January.