Charts I’m Watching: Mar 1, 2021

Last week, VIX shot up above its 200-DMA and experienced a bullish 10/20-DMA cross (bearish for stocks.) It even backtested its 200-DMA on Friday – leaving bears a rare bit of encouragement for the coming week.

Naturally, VIX was slammed back below its 200-DMA and is showing a 12% decline on absolutely no news (JNJ’s vaccine approval was already a done deal) as we approach the open. The algos are delighted.

continued for membersThe futures are still struggling to get to the top of their falling red channel.

…as VIX contemplates a drop sharp enough to erase the 10/20 cross. Elsewhere, DXY continues to elevate slightly as EURUSD is falling and USDJPY inches higher.

GC is finally within striking distance of our 1694-1697 target range……while SI continues to ignore all the fuss and wait patiently for its SMA100 backtest. And, BTC is getting a bump back above its 2.618 after closing below it yesterday.On the inflation front, 10Y yields continue to slump lower after tagging the backtest target……while oil and gas continue sideways with an OPEC meeting coming up on Thursday. FWIW, I lost track of all the bullish oil/gas research reports I’ve seen lately. Likewise, pretty much everyone now seems to expect inflation to rise in the coming months and for interest rates to rise along with them. I absolutely agree that this will happen…if oil/gas prices don’t crater.

Meanwhile, ES just tagged the top of its falling red channel and SMA20. Another moment of truth…

more later