Futures got a nice bounce off the 200-day moving average and are slated for another sizable bump today.
continued for members…
The big question is whether or not ES can do more than just a backtest of the broken channel. Note that the recent bounce was also a backtest of the 2022 highs. So, I fully expect no further downside. But, between the SMA200 and the previous high, it’ll be pretty clear if it happens.
As before, the answer to that question will likely boil down to the yield curve. The 2s10s briefly turned positive on Monday but has widened back to a range of -4 to -6 bps this morning.
TNX still has more downside potenital, while CL is still on the brink of a TL breakdown and RB is testing horizontal support.
