Getting a bit of an early start this morning due to traveling…

Friday saw the repercussions of USDJPY continuing to operate below the SMA100 as our analog predicted.  USDJPY itself hasn’t fully given in to the downside.  The .618 at 118.02 remains the most obvious target.  It’s not much of a drop, but the potential implications for the yen carry trade are huge.

Unfortunately for bears, CL continues to take up the slack — propping up stocks with no difficulty.

Friday saw a decline below the 1.272 at 57.43, but the ramp job in the past 24 hours, as usual, has driven futures higher.  The 60 min chart:

VIX and TNX continue to play footsie with bearish chart patterns — hinting but not committing.  TNX can’t seem to get below 1.85ish…

…and, while VIX popped higher on Friday, it hasn’t even broken out of the falling gray channel.

continued for members…SPX itself continues to appear quite propped up.  Friday saw the index shed 32 points, only to face a 12-pt ramp job in ES this morning.  The net result of Friday’s late afternoon melt-up was a bounce back out of the falling white channel — a backtest.

The .786 and .886 would be the most obvious targets were it not for the aggressive tag team of USDJPY and CL.  If they continue to actively target bears, The .618 might be the best bears can hope for.

Looking at the 60-min chart, one gets the idea that the 11-pt bounce was merely a backtest of the broken channel line.  But, time will tell.