It’s now been three days since USDJPY closed above its 100-day moving average, and the strain is starting to show.

The S&P 500 futures were off 20 points overnight, which was finally enough to send USDJPY scurrying higher in plunge protection mode.

CL gapped higher, of course (now 37% off the Mar lows) but it hasn’t been enough to stem the overnight losses.

SPX’s first test will be the TL from December.  If that doesn’t hold, things could get pretty interesting.

continued for members…

UPDATE:  9:32AM

SPX headed straight for the TL, but it’s the moving averages — starting around 2083 — which are likely to provide more support.  Note this would also represent a solid backtest of the falling white channel that TPTB worked so hard to escape.

UPDATE:  9:49 AM

Reached the SMAs.  Updated targets if they don’t hold: